Credit Suisse Predicts Amazon Will Lose eBook Market Share

Amazon did a lot of the legwork to get the eBook business underway, thereby making things much easier for Amazon’s competition, which, in the last year, has been flooding the market with eReaders. According to an analyst from Credit Suisse, that means Amazon’s eBook market share is going to fall dramatically over the next few years.

The Wall Street Journal
quotes a Credit Suisse analyst who details his predictions about Amazon’s loss of market share:

Near term, we suspect that the iPad and the new eBook agency pricing model, which requires that Amazon increase retail prices to be more consistent with Apple’s pricing, will provide Kindle with the most market share headwind. Going forward, we can envision a scenario where Apple, Amazon, and Google eventually split the market. Therefore, we expect Amazon’s share of eBooks business to fall from 90% currently to about 35% over the next five years.

That’s a big drop. Of course, if things go as everyone hopes, the market will also grow a hell of a lot in the next five years, meaning all that competition could result in more money all around.

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