Performance Marketing

Modeling Turns the Risky Unknown Into the Hopeful Potential

In pursuit of the least wrong answer

road signs saying bad and worse — Modeling is needed even in the days of big and ubiquitous data.Getty Images

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Let’s assume you must choose between two hypothetical options: a near-certain answer that is 95% accurate in two to three months; or a predicted estimate that is only 80% accurate in one to two weeks.

In most common situations (i.e. not life-or-death), you would likely pick the latter. Why? Because the rapidly changing world doesn’t wait for certainty. It is better to try something based on assumptions and predictions, fail fast if inevitable, and promptly move on.

Now,