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In May, Google unveiled the beta version of its Search Generative Experience (SGE) technology—a product that uses artificial intelligence to answer search queries on-page—and the technology has sent publishers scrambling to prepare for a major disruption to their organic search traffic, which typically constitutes their largest source of readership and, ultimately, revenue.
When fully incorporated into search, SGE could reduce publishers’ organic search traffic anywhere from 20% to 80%, according to interviews with media executives, SEO consultants and AI technologists. Some experts believe the shift could occur as early as this fall, although others believe the antitrust scrutiny facing Google could slow its rollout.
In response, publishers are taking steps to mitigate the potential effects of such a decline, including building out their direct channels, investing in content more difficult for AI to replicate and retooling their search authority to satisfy SGE.
Publishers have seen social platforms, particularly Facebook, diminish as sources of referral traffic, but the interplay between media companies and Google is considerably more complex, given the commercial value they create for one another, according to Greg Powel, the chief executive of Money.com and a former Google employee.
Within months, across the web, you would see hundreds of smaller websites go out of business
Avram Piltch, the editor in chief, Tom’s Hardware.
“Google knows its business model, and it knows it operates within an ecosystem,” Powel said. “If there is no revenue model to finance publishers, its user experience will suffer.”
Google did not respond to a request for comment.
A hit on programmatic and commerce revenue
For nearly every publisher on the open web, a decline in search traffic will result in a decline in digital advertising revenue.
However, for certain media companies, particularly those whose businesses rely heavily on search traffic, SGE could be an extinction-level event if launched in its current form, according to Avram Piltch, the editor in chief of Future plc. title Tom’s Hardware.
“Within months, across the web, you would see hundreds of smaller websites go out of business,” Piltch said. “The effect on many parts of the internet would be apocalyptic.”
Even publishers less reliant on organic search are preparing for a material decline in search traffic, including one such company that anticipates a decline in traffic of between 20% to 30% over the next two years, according to an executive who spoke candidly on the condition of anonymity.
Such a drop-off would primarily affect its programmatic revenues, as many sites with direct-sold advertising can see their traffic shrink and still fulfill those commitments. But with a programmatic CPM of $2 to $3, the predicted loss of search traffic could result in an eight-figure drop in advertising revenue for the company, they estimated.
SGE could also upend the affiliate marketing business by routing product queries through Google pipes, according to the executive. Past updates to the Google algorithm have seen it lose 60% to 70% of its commerce business, and SGE appears poised to do the same.
“The practical way we are looking at this is that our sites are going to take a hit in terms of programmatic and commerce,” the executive said.
Prioritizing direct channels and original reporting
Legal and political considerations—such as the right of large language models to scrape publishers’ data without compensation, as well as the chilling effects of antitrust scrutiny on Google—will play a critical role in shaping the debate, according to Jason Kint, the chief executive of Digital Content Next.
Similarly, a growing number of publishers, such as the AP, have arranged licensing deals or other forms of compensation for the use of their content, said Danielle Coffey, the president and chief executive of the News/Media Alliance.
But more practically, publishers are considering adjusting their editorial strategy to produce the kinds of content AI is less capable of reproducing, including breaking news, investigative reporting, personality-inflected writing, audio and video.
By reducing organic traffic, SGE could also prompt publishers to rethink their syndication and distribution strategies, acting more like walled gardens than open ecosystems, according to one executive.
Publishers with less editorial flexibility can explore using paid search—in whatever new form it takes—to attract traffic, as well as retool their SEO to optimize for SGE, said Powel.
While SGE can appear ominous, the history of search is punctuated by moments of transformative change, and digital media companies must make their peace with that volatility, said Barry Schwartz, the founder of software firm RustyBrick and an SEO expert.
“I have tracked Google-algorithm updates for two decades, and they make or break businesses,” Schwartz said. “But if you own a website and are unable to adapt and change, you are in the wrong business.”
