Ron Paul Could Win Iowa, Based On His Facebook Reach

As the first votes in the 2012 elections are cast today in Iowa's caucuses, Facebook data shows that Ron Paul has the most viral reach.

Facebook data shows that Ron Paul has the most viral reach, which just might mean he stands a chance to win today’s Iowa caucus, the opening primary in the 2012 presidential elections.

Data from three different companies highlight this influence. For starters, Socialbakers has three sets of findings based on monitoring more than a million Facebook pages and places and billions of individual user interactions.

Viral Reach

Ron Paul has the highest overall viral reach, with 59,554 people talking about him this past week, second only to President Barack Obama. Among the GOP candidates, Mitt Romney comes in third and Rick Perry comes in fourth.

Peer-to-Peer Interaction

Michelle Bachmann leads in person-to-person interactions among Facebook users, followed by Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman.

Obama leads with 50 percent of the total interactions. Ron Paul leads the Republican Party with 19 percent. Socialbakers evaluates all debates, comments, conversations to each other’s posts on a candidate’s page.

Facebook Fans

Obama is leading with the most number of fans at 24 million, followed by Mitt Romney at 1.3 million, Ron Paul with 672,483 and Michelle Bachmann with 460,336.

Rick Santorum has the fastest-growing fan base throughout the last 30 days (23 percent growth). Many of these findings mirror the results of our sister blog’s Election Tracker 2012 tool.

Ensomo’s Analysis

Ensomo, another social media monitoring firm, is reporting some of the same results in its analysis of tweets and likes among the GOP candidates ahead of today’s Iowa caucus.

Among the Ensomo graphs posted on e.politics is one that charts the volume of tweets and Facebook likes garnered by the Republican candidates in the last week of 2011. There was a drop and then a rise in social media chatter for Ron Paul. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has faded out of discussions, while former Senator Santorum experienced a surge.

Sociagility’s Study

Not to be outdone, the social metrics firm Sociagility also studied the social media performance of the GOP presidential candidates before tonight’s Iowa caucuses–with slightly different results.

Using their proprietary measurement tool known as PRINT™, Ron Paul has the highest score on the Sociagility scale, followed by Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann then Mitt Romney. The candidates are measured based on their popularity, receptiveness, interactions, network and trust.

Readers, what insights do you have into the data from Socialbakers, Ensomo and Sociagility?

Graphic: Socialbakers