Did the Droid Really Close the New Customer Gap Between Verizon & AT&T in Q4 2009?

I’m always skeptical of long range marketshare projections like the one discussed in my previous blog post…

IDC Predicts Android Will Be #2 Ahead of the iPhone in 2013 – But, Where’s BlackBerry & Maemo?

After all, it is hard enough to make sense of actual numbers from the present. Case in point? Reuters reports…

Droid to help Verizon narrow gap with AT&T

This gap closing is all relative, of course. Here’s the comparison this article refers to:

2009 Q3: AT&T – 2 million new customers
2009 Q3: Verzion – 1.2 million new customers

2009 Q4: AT&T – 1.8 million new customers
2009 Q4: Verizon – 1.5 new customers

One could interpret this as an indication of the effectiveness of Verizon’s Fall 2009 Droid campaign. This interpretation goes like this: The Droid campaign was so effective that there was a drop in iPhone buying interest that resulted in fewer new AT&T customers.

Here’s another simpler interpretation of the same numbers: The iPhone 3GS became available in Q3 and caused a spike in new AT&T customers. The Droid became available in Q4 and caused a spike in new Verizon customers.

Here’s what would really help Verizon draw more new customers: It gets the iPhone too 🙂