CES 2012: Predictions for Publishers

This year the big news of the 2012 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2012) was all about television. Best product was the new LG OLED television (55EM9600, a 55-inch OLED TV). The long awaited OLED technology made its debut as a beautiful 55 inch OLED television that is a mere 4 mm thick with a 1mm bezel. Other television technologies at CES included Simple.TV, a next-generation DVR that has no video output. Instead, Simple.TV records over-the-air HDTV content, then streams it to supported devices such as Google TV, Roku and the iPad. TVs that connect to and access content from the Internet were also a big part of CES this year. Google and Samsung showed their offerings and rumors abounded about Apple launching an iTV later in the year.For publishers, last year the star of CES was clearly the "Tablet." The tablet onslaught clearly had huge implications for publishers racing to deliver their content as widely as possible across the emerging tablet publishing channel. This year, while we saw refinements and hybridization in the tablet market space, the lack of overwhelming leaps in publication delivery technologies was good news. CES 2012 predicts we will have a year to refine production tools and workflows to deliver content to a relatively stable delivery platform environment.What is CES? Why the Buzz?What you read about the Consumer Electronics Show should always be put in context. This year CES went International and broke all records with final attendance already confirmed to be upward of 153,000. 2012 CES set a new record amount of exhibition space (1.86 million net square feet) and a new record was set for the total number of exhibitors, with over 3,100 displaying their wares at this show. The process to be granted press registration set the bar higher than ever, and still I was one of 5,000 press that attended the event. So, why all the interest? Why all the buzz? It's because CES is all about what's new. CES is where most major technology innovations are announced to the world. CES can certainly help us understand the trends and predict the future. But make no mistake, what you most often see at CES is much like viewing concept cars at the auto show. Most of the exciting new technologies are not commercially available. Our estimate is that 90 percent of the technologies we reviewed are not commercially available here. Commercial availability typically begins in Asia before it hits the US markets. Many technologies are in "prototype," and use CES to find OEMs to brand and sell their products in markets around the world. Trends for PublishersEven if much of what one finds at CES are not commercial products today, a survey of technologies shown and announced can still provide important information about industry technology trends. While at CES, I focused on those technologies that may have a direct effect the publishing and media industry -tablet PC technologies, eReader technologies and display technologies. The new PC category "Ultrabooks" was also of interest as these PCs clearly bring desirable features of the tablet to the traditional laptop PC space.Tablet PC TechnologiesPractically every major consumer tech company at CES 2012 is showing a tablet. All tablets are not created equal and the trend toward tablet market segmentation is evident. Tablet devices continue to diversify based on differences of class, interface, usability and functionality. Internet Tablets are predominant. This category includes general purpose tablets that support email, facebook, twitter, YouTube, fun apps like Angry Birds and now eReader Technology. This category is made up of simple but powerful information appliances and for publishers has been established as a new content delivery platform. It is interesting to note that nearly all "eReader" products at the show featured ePub software running on a tablet. This makes sense as CES is all about what's new and eInk technology is so old school.Other tablet categories include gaming tablets that are optimized with gaming capabilities and office tablets that add more RAM storage, USB input and operating systems which enable the tablet to function like a lightweight PC. I particularly liked the NEC LT-W Android Cloud Communicator. This office tablet has a dual book-style display made up of two 7 inch panels. The OS is Windows 7, runs all standard office applications and leverages the cloud to make this a truly functional business device. LT-W is scheduled for launch in April 2012. It will be interesting to see if the new Ultrabooks replace this office tablet market segment or if tablets with office functions emerge victorious. The lower price point should give office tablets some advantage. NEC LT-W is said to be priced under $300.Dominant Tablet Sizes Emerge It appears that two dominant tablet sizes are emerging. The larger iPad-like 10.1 size and the Galaxy-like 7.7 sizes seem to be winning out. Visio's newest tablet, the VTAB 3010, moves from the odd 8 inch display of its predecessor to the more-standard 10.1 inch iPad-like display. For publishers this should be good news, as it will narrow the number of designs and layouts required to reach a broad cross section of tablets on the market. Tablet Price Point DropsLast year the iPad set the price point of $499 for tablets. At CES 2011, I reported that I did not predict a significantly lower price point for tablets. And until the Kindle Fire surprised the market, the price point remained stable. But this year, it's a different story. Kindle Fire seems to have opened the flood gates and most new tablets at CES are definitely moving to compete on price.Before the release of Amazon's Kindle Fire, most tablets from a major vendor cost around the same as the iPad. But the Fire's US$199 price has changed things. According to CNET, the best tablet of CES 2012 was the Asus MeMo 370T. This new tablet will ship with Ice Cream Sandwich and houses a quad-core Tegra 3. The 370T comes with 1GB of RAM and at least 16GB of storage. It also sports a 1,280x800-pixel IPS screen and will sell for a price point of only $250. CNET predicts that the 307T will have a similar effect on the market as did the Kindle Fire by offering users a high quality tablet experience at a price that many more can afford.Displays Go High ResThe trend is definitely toward a more high res display for tablets. A big rumor at CES is that the next generation of Apple iPad tablets will have a significantly higher screen resolution with a pixel density similar to that on the iPhone 4's Retina Display. Asus showed off the TF700T with a 1,920 x 1,200-pixel screen. Acer also teased us with a new tablet boasting full-HD 1080p resolution.For publishers the higher resolutions will have an impact of the quality of images and graphics. Higher resolution displays will have an impact on advertising specifications for these devices.The downside of higher resolution displays is decreased battery life. It just takes more energy to drive the improved screen displays. With no new battery technology on the horizon, look for shorter up time with newer tablet models.Ice Cream Sandwich Replaces HoneycombLast year the buzz of CES was all about the new Android 3.0 "Honeycomb" based systems. This year the latest flavor of Android OS is the Android 4.0 "Ice Cream Sandwich" OS. The new OS focuses on enhancing Android's multitasking capabilities. Ice Cream Sandwich makes common actions more visible and enables you to navigate with simple, intuitive gestures. The animations, screen resolutions and entirely new typeface gives these tablets a new and modern feel. New Android Ice Cream Sandwich tablets from Coby, Asus, Notion Ink and Sony were announced at CES 2012. You can learn more at the Android Ice Cream Sandwich website.Reflective Display TechnologiesWhile those using their tablets for reading think the LCD tablet color displays are sharp, they also bemoan the short reading time that comes with the shift to tablets. For those concerned with battery life, two new display technologies were shown at CES 2012. These technologies add color and agility of tablet displays to eInk-type reflective displays and make sense for those using tablets as eReaders.I found two new exciting display technologies at CES. The first was Qualcomm's Mirasol full color display technology that uses interferometric modulation. This is an agile, reflective technology that while it is not as brilliant as LCD, looks good enough for digital magazines. This technology boasts a long battery life and because it is reflective works well outdoors or in environments where glare is an issue. During 2012, Qualcomm will focus on the market in Korea. Mirasol displays will not come to the US market until 2012 because Qualcomm doesn't yet have the production capacity to handle orders for our market. A second new display technology comes from PixelQi (pronounced "chee"). The PixelQi transflective liquid crystal displays are revolutionary because they can operate both in a standard backlit LCD mode and a reflective mode. In the reflective mode illumination is supplied solely by the sun or other ambient lighting. As a result, Pixel Qi claims that its displays consume 80 percent less power than standard displays. PixelQi was at CES talking to investors to enable the company to develop its product offerings into volume consumer markets as well as digital signage and touch applications. PixelQi is a spinoff of OLPC (One Laptop Per Child) initiative. Mary Lou Jepsen, co-founder and CEO of PixelQi invented the display systems for the sunlight readable XO-1 laptop display. This is definitely a technology to watch.Magazines on TabletsWhile we are very aware how awesome magazines are when presented on a tablet, I found that many, even in the press room, were not reading magazines on tablets. Time, Inc. helped promote the whole industry with its "We're On It" advertising campaign. Time distributed a model tablet with a gift of free access to all Time Inc. tablet editions for attendees! Everyone loved it! New Ultrabook PCsWhile anyone who owns a MacBook Air wonders what all the fuss is about, those of us who work on the PC platform are finding the competing thin, lightweight laptops with full operating systems quite attractive. Clearly these devices are a response to the desire to have the light weight responsiveness of tablets but functionality for business purposes. A PC is a must have device, but it is boring when compared with a tablet. The new Ultrabooks are sleek and sexy. The Consumer Electronics Association expects 30 to 40 models of Ultrabooks to come to market by the end of 2012. Ultrabooks are forecast to replace netbooks and halt the slipping sales of PCs as consumers purchase tablets. Manufacturers such as Asus, Acer, Toshiba and Lenovo all are offering Ultrabooks for under $1,000.00. An important note about Ultrabooks is that while these are lightweight and sexy, they are NOT tablets. You work with standard software and not with apps on an Ultrabook. And until Windows 8 comes to market, touch screen is not an option.Predictions for PublishersSo what does CES 2012 predict for publishers? * Tablet display size seems to be standardizing at 7.7 inch and 10.1 inch This is good news for publishers who are designing publications for a target device size. * Tablet display resolution is increasing, and for these tablets battery life is decreasing. * The functionality of tablets is rapidly increasing while the price is dropping. Price point for new Ice Cream Sandwich tablets sets a new price point of about $250. This means a larger audience for content will be in place by the end of 2012. * Office Tablets are emerging to provide more pc-like interfaces and functionality while maintaining the mobility of Internet Appliance Tablets * Ultrabook PCs will begin to compete head-on-head with tablets.PostscriptDoes connected television introduce yet another platform for publishers? App stores now are adding apps for TV in addition to those for smart phones and tablets. Today some TV content apps exist, usually for newspapers that can be read on TV. I discussed the prospect of magazine apps with Google techies at CES. Clearly other entertainment and games are predominant TV apps today, but why not magazines? The biggest issue is the fact that touch screen is not (and will likely not be) available. Magazines enhanced for tablets would work on TV, with a mouse vs touch interface. A new challenge for publishers who want to deliver their content everywhere!Dianne Kennedy is the Vice President of Emerging Technologies for IDEAlliance, where she oversees and guides the development of emerging technology specifications and best practices to support platform agnostic, cross media publishing. Her nextPub publishing industry technology incubator fosters the development of next-generation publishing tools that can make multi-channel publishing simple and efficient.

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CES 2012: Predictions for Publishers

Dianne Kennedy

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Dianne Kennedy