Divergent Forecasts For Wireless Sectorr


Projections for future mobile commerce revenues and wireless Internet
subscribers vary so widely from research firm to research firm that
informed figures are nearly impossible to come by, according to a study
released Wednesday.

In its eWireless Report, New York-based Internet statistics firm eMarketer
cited widely disparate estimates regarding mobile advertising spending.
Forecasted U.S. m-advertising revenues for 2005 ranged from Yankee Group’s
$6.1 billion to Ovum’s $4.2 billion to Forrester Research’s $890 million.
The report said that Forrester had serious doubts about consumer
acceptance of ads on cell phones and PDAs.

Among the report’s other findings, the number of worldwide mobile Internet
users reached about 95 million in 2000, with 80 percent located in the
Asia/Pacific Rim and North American regions; of the $22.2 billion in
worldwide m-commerce revenues forecast for 2005, Jupiter Research
predicted that $10.8 billion will derive from shopping, $8 billion from
paid content and $3.3 billion from advertising; and while m-commerce in
the United States currently lags behind the rest of the world, a rising
market of youths purchasing cell phones is expected to dramatically
improve U.S. figures.

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