Coen Projects 4.8% Ad Rise for ’07

NEW YORK Universal McCann is projecting advertising revenue to grow 4.8 percent in 2007 to slightly less than $300 billion. (In 2006, projected ad revenue rose 5.2 percent to $285 billion, compared with the previous year.)

“Next year the economic climate is clouded and there are no Olympics or extra political activity,” said Bob Coen, svp, director of forecasting at Interpublic Group’s UM. “Few marketers are likely to abandon their recent cautiousness.”

Coen projects that national TV ad revenue in 2007 will grow 6 percent to $195 billion, up from $185 billion this year (in which it posted a 7 percent gain), while local media ad spending will grow 2.7 percent to $103 billion, up from $100.5 billion this year (a 2.2 percent gain from 2005).

Coen is projecting that ad revenue for the Big Four broadcast TV networks will increase 3 percent in 2007 to $17.5 billion, following a 5 percent increase this year. He also projects that spot TV ad revenue will be flat in 2007 at slightly more than $11 billion, on the heels of an 11 percent increase this year, aided by the Olympics and Congressional elections.

Ad spending on cable TV, he predicted, will grow 6.5 percent in 2007 to nearly $20.5 billion, up from $19 billion this year. Syndicated TV ad spending, he said, will grow 6 percent in 2007 to nearly $4.5 billion, up from $4 billion this year, while national advertising on radio will increase 4 percent to $4.5 billion in 2007.

Magazines, Coen predicts, will register $14 billion in ad revenue in 2007, up 5 percent over the $13.4 percent they will tally this year, while newspapers will bring in $7.3 billion in national ad revenue in 2007, up 1 percent from the $7.2 billion that they will take in this year.

Still, that’s an improvement for newspapers, which were down 3 percent in 2006 compared to a year ago.

Steve King, CEO of Zenith Optimedia, is projecting network TV ad spending in 2007 to decline by 1.5 percent over this year, but he included the flailing CW and MyNetworkTV broadcast networks, while Coen did not.

King is projecting local TV ad spending in 2007 down 1 percent, following a 7 percent increase this year, while cable TV will be up 6 percent, following a 5.5 percent increase this year. Syndicated TV will show the same 3 percent increase in 2007 as it did this year, King projects, while magazine ad spending will grow 4.9 percent in 2007 versus a 3.8 percent increase this year. Newspaper national ad revenue will grow 2 percent in 2007, King predicts, compared to a 2.5 percent increase this year.

Coen said local advertising, particularly newspapers, has been “beleaguered,” and he added, “I am not very optimistic about any new upsurge in local marketing spending” next year.

Coen is projecting that local newspapers will see a 2 percent gain in ad spending in 2007 to more than $41 billion, local radio will rise 1 percent to more than $15 billion and local TV ad spending will rise 4 percent to $15.5 billion.

As 2006 comes to a close, Coen said national TV advertising in the largest spending categories has been especially soft. Autos, beverages and cosmetics were all slightly down; prescription drugs were flat; and movies, foods and restaurants all rose between 5-8 percent.

Secondary ad categories, however, “have been going like gangbusters, primarily because of intense competition,” he said. Airlines, insurance and telecommunications each rose about 20 percent, while computers soared 60 percent.