Strikes. Streaming. Social. Is the Fall TV Season Relevant Anymore?

Long a rite of autumn, the fall TV season has typically ushered in a wave of network TV shows, new storylines for returning series and special events that advertisers would spend billions of dollars upfront to be a part of. But fall 2023 will see the triple whammy of continued economic uncertainty, new ad-supported streaming services and a historic double strike in Hollywood. That begs one question: Is the fall TV season even relevant anymore? “Today’s consumers have so many more content sources to satiate their attention," said Mike Proulx, vice president, research director at Forrester. "Creator content platforms like TikTok and YouTube are effectively immune to what’s happening in Hollywood, and Netflix’s international production footprint affords the streamer a level of defense." With increased advertising inventory and streamers vying for TV upfront dollars, large commitments to a set fall TV schedule seem antiquated. Add in lower ratings, and it can just be bad business. ABC Makes Last-Minute Changes to Fall Lineup Amid Ongoing Strikes The writers and actors strikes are causing networks to make late adjustments to their fall lineups to lean more on reality—a genre that doesn't necessarily command the same CPMs (cost per thousand viewers reached) as scripted. And with big names such as Disney CEO Bob Iger saying traditional TV and cable "may not be core" to his company's future, it's easy to question where the industry goes from here. "Iger's been very clear. No one's trying to hide what they're doing," a media buyer said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "They're basically squeezing as much money out of their traditional business and trying to evolve it with a new direct-to-consumer streaming business." Going with the stream The writing's been on the wall for a while. Nielsen recently reported that linear TV fell below 50% of total TV usage for the first time. The Covid-19 pandemic accelerated the digital shift, as streaming continues to grab more share, reaching a record of 38.7% total usage in July. But don't count out traditional TV just yet. After all, several buyers told Adweek that, with the exception of adding increased flexibility to budgets for fall, Hollywood's strikes didn't have drastic effects on negotiations, and that's because Q4 always has some reliable programming in its back pocket. "The reality is that when it comes to linear, viewers have already made the shift to streaming for scripted programming. What continues to keep linear afloat and will help it weather the impact of the strikes are sports and news," Ashwin Navin, co-founder and CEO of Samba TV, said. According to Navin, 88 of the top 100 linear programs of the first half of the year were sports, and the other 12 were boosted by program slots before or after the games. And if Q4 is known for anything, it's sports. Scoring with sports "It is the best sports quarter of the entire year. That's the reliable time to get live viewing, and nobody can argue with that. So that's not going anywhere with a strike," Lindsey Carner Kroll, vice president, group director, Advanced Video and Multimedia COE, Digitas NA, told Adweek. According to Carner Kroll, fall TV is "of course" still relevant, as long as you're not trying to stick to traditional primetime ad strategies. After all, there are "always changes to the schedule," Carner Kroll said, adding that in addition to Q4 being "chockablock" with sports, "partners have holiday blocks and opportunities for co-viewing." It's all about approaching video with a data-driven strategy and letting go of the restrictions of the past. Speaking anonymously, another buyer said, "The seasonality of our advertisers' businesses is important, [not] the seasonality of TV." We’ve got to stop pretending like things are going to go back to the way things were.Lindsey Carner Kroll, vp, group director, Advanced Video and Multimedia COE, Digitas NA Buyers told us they're looking for annual partnerships with publishers, a "52-week-a-year" process, with marketers leaning more into data-driven solutions such as programmatic advertising and addressable TV to have linear served dynamically. "By putting data at the core and not marrying yourself to an old-school mentality of primetime to get viewership, marketers are not going to be subjected to those types of marketplace fluctuations," Carner Kroll said. The TV fall out: 88 of the top 100 linear programs of the first half of the year were sports-related. 1 in 3 streaming consumers are FAST (free ad-supported TV) viewers. 60% of U.S. adults are considering a cheaper tier of SVOD with ads. 60% of Netflix and Disney+ subscribers would watch live events on the platforms if they were offered. *Source: Samba TV Striking a balance Though the strikes didn't necessarily affect Q4 from a dollar perspective, the industry is looking at programming disruptions leaking into Q1 and beyond on both the linear and streaming side if a deal isn't reached soon, as productions can take months to get to air. "I think we're all very concerned at this point about the long-term implications," another buyer said, speaking anonymously. Navin points to Netflix's success with Suits as an example of how companies can adapt. Though the series premiered in 2011, it appeared on Samba TV’s top 10 rankings for several consecutive weeks this summer, thanks to Netflix "leaning on its recommendation engines and smart genre investment." Because whether you utilize linear, CTV or a Meghan Markle series from 2011, data-driven solutions will find consumers, regardless of the season. "We’ve got to stop pretending like things are going to go back to the way things were. Data must be at the core, and marketers must think audience-first," Carner Kroll said. "They should approach this as a 'big-screen strategy' instead of a TV versus CTV strategy."

Video Marketing

Strikes. Streaming. Social. Is the Fall TV Season Relevant Anymore?

Industry insiders reveal how advertisers can adapt

Bill Bradley

About

Subscriptions

Events

Publications

WORK SMARTER - LEARN, GROW AND BE INSPIRED.

Subscribe today!

Bill Bradley