Q&A: Magna's Steve Sternberg

Judging from the networks' development slates, you wouldn't know there was a recession, says Steve Sternberg, evp, audience analysis at Magna, a unit of Interpublic Group's Mediabrands. And while the nets have been upfront about their determination to be more cost-efficient in producing shows, Sternberg says whatever they're cutting back on doesn't appear to be affecting on-screen quality. In fact, he says, judging from the pilots and clips he's seen so far, he's more impressed with the nets' overall development effort this year than he has been in several years. In the following Q&A, Sternberg assesses each network's offerings, commercial retention strategies and the implications of the Jay Leno move.Among the major broadcast networks, whose development slate impressed you the most and why? And the least impressive? Each network had at least two new shows we like. So I would say all were more impressive than the past couple of years.Which net has the best commercial-retention strategies and why? The best commercial-retention strategies are largely on the cable networks. Fox's Remote-Free TV stands out as a good experiment.Are you referring to certain cable networks or is that a fact about cable based on ratings or other data?Well, while the broadcast networks tend to actually retain their viewers better overall, several cable networks have better specific strategies in terms of experimenting with pod-buster-type things and researching how best to keep viewers tuned in. Fox said it's Remote Free TV experiment with smaller commercial loads in certain shows would not continue this season. Is that disappointing given your research which showed the trial did improve audience retention to spots?It is disappointing to a degree, but they are going to do it on a more limited basis, and we like to think our research might have contributed to that.Fox's smartest move and its riskiest?Putting So You Think You Can Dance on Tuesday and Wednesday in the fall was both the smartest and riskiest move.An advertiser, Subway, essentially saved Chuck on NBC by stepping up with a major sponsorship for next season. Is that kind of advertiser involvement in scheduling good for the business? Are we likely to see more of it going forward as financial considerations increasingly are deciding the fates of programs?If more advertisers step up with this type of involvement, it will probably be good for the industry, since it is more likely to be done with quality shows than junk. And the resulting press might actually get more people to tune in. But it has to be the right show for the right advertiser.NBC says it will succeed if can get a modest-size audience to tune in just a couple of times a week, while ABC and CBS both say the move gives them an opportunity to boost their 10 p.m. audience shares. Can everybody win here?Yes. Except, of course, program suppliers.How risky is NBC's move of Jay Leno to 10 p.m across the week for the network? Risky is not really the right word. Financially, it can easily work. Programming-wise, Fox has been very successful with an 8-10 p.m. lineup. We're just not used to seeing that with one of the original Big Three.Roughly how big an audience at 10 p.m. does Leno have to garner to succeed in your view.Somewhere between how it performs now in late night and how its 10 p.m. series perform. But keep in mind, except for Law & Order: SVU, NBC has had problems at 10 p.m.If Leno works, is it just a matter of time before we see additional prime-time network strips?I think Leno is a unique situation, since NBC did not want to lose him to ABC. Millionaire did it for a week, but I don't think we'll see it during the regular season anytime soon.NBC has said Leno at 10 would allow it to focus its development across fewer hours. Does it show?Given that they still have two hours of The Biggest Loser on Tuesday and Sunday post-football will not have any scripted programming, I'd have to say not yet.Of the eight new ABC shows, two in particular seemed to be well-received by buyers at the network's upfront -- the drama Flash Forward and the comedy Modern Family. Would you agree those two shows have the best chance to succeed for the network? I thought Modern Family was very funny and one of the best new comedy pilots I've seen in years. We've been saying for a few years now that people are looking for family comedies. Flash Forward looks interesting, but we haven't seen the full pilot yet. I'm not sure the clips they showed us did it justice. As was the case with Lost, how the network executes the show going forward will be key.The riskiest moves at ABC? Putting all new programming on Wednesday, including four new comedies. CBS, which continues to draw the largest overall audience, offered the most conservative new schedule. Was it too conservative, or the right play given its competitive position? It was absolutely the right play. CBS knows what it does best, and when it has varied too far off, it has not worked. Your research shows a dearth in successful network comedy development in recent years. Why is the comedy genre so difficult and does the new development crop provide much hope for improvement next season? People are actually watching more comedy than ever; it's just on cable and syndication. Ironically, it's largely the broadcast networks' own former hits. It's hard to develop a new comedy success when people are still comparing them to Everybody Loves Raymond, Seinfeld, Fresh Prince, Roseanne and even Family Matters. We've also pointed out that viewers are looking for more family comedies, not edgy ones. This year's comedy development seems to have taken that to heart. Fox sales president Jon Nesvig made a reference to the recent Council for Research Excellence's Consumer Video Mapping Study that indicated that upwards of 98 percent of the viewing to the three screens is to TV. Does that suggest to you that perhaps the industry is a little too focused on multiplatform, "360-degree" strategies when one platform dominates to such a degree?That study compared watching TV on a TV set versus watching video on the Internet or on mobile, not all online usage. The same study also showed that the reach of video online is about the same as DVR playback. But the time spent is much less because video online is still largely short-duration clips. As Fox, NBC and now ABC start advertising Hulu heavily on traditional television, time spent per video stream is starting to inch up. While still over-hyped to a degree, it's on the verge of significant growth.CW is now fully focused on young women as its audience target. Would they be in a better place right now if they had had that focus from the get-go? Not really. They might not have had the same batch of shows -- there wasn't enough time from the get-go to develop a whole new slate of programs. At the time, keeping the best of WB and UPN seemed like a good idea. Sometimes you need time to develop a strategy that works.Do you miss wrestling? It's still on. Just not on CW.For more upfront analysis from Sternberg and his team go to the reports section at Mediabrands.comClick here for AdweekMedia's Complete Upfront Coverage

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Q&A: Magna's Steve Sternberg

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