What Peacock's Record-Breaking NFL Streaming Ratings Don't Tell You

Is Peacock doing its touchdown dance too soon? Over the weekend, NBCUniversal's streamer delivered the most-streamed live event in U.S. history, with its exclusive NFL Wild Card matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins averaging 23 million viewers. Immediately, the accolades poured in, with headlines championing Peacock's success, but experts say those audience numbers don't tell the whole story. "It was also the least watched playoff game of the weekend," Ross Benes, Insider Intelligence analyst, said. "The Cowboys game broke 40 million." The matchup had all the makings of a ratings blockbuster, according to Benes, who pointed out the Chiefs are defending Super Bowl champs and the Dolphins had one of the top offenses in the league. In addition, the game had a Taylor Swift bump going for it, with the camera often cutting to the singer sporting her Travis Kelce-themed jacket. Of course, when the numbers came in, the game's viewership fell far behind the other five Wild Card matchups, coming closest to the Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles games, which both averaged 29.2 million viewers across streaming and linear. "They probably lost at least 10 million viewers by making it streaming exclusive," Benes said, noting viewership also came in from local television. "I do want to throw a little cold water on the NBC press release and say it was the most streamed event, but it was also the least watched game because it was streaming only." Peacock to Broadcast First Commercial-Free NFL Fourth Quarter Thus far, the dropoff to streaming-only games continues to be significant. For example, Prime Video's exclusive Thursday Night Football streams averaged 11.86 million viewers per game, which was up 24% year over year, according to data from Nielsen. However, this season, NFL games have averaged 17.9 million viewers overall. But as the industry continues its shift to streaming, Benes says there's a precedent for success. "Back when NFL games started going to cable, mostly on ESPN, there was a big dropoff. When ESPN got Monday Night Football, the ratings were down compared to when they were on broadcast networks," Benes said. "But people got accustomed to that." On the way to the all-digital future, marketers have messages of caution to the streaming TV industry. The Peacock-exclusive Wild Card game was a "smart move" to promote the capabilities of the streamer, according to Jed Meyer, svp and media solutions leader at Kantar. But the Kantar svp added, "The watch-out for the wider sports industry would be not to overwhelm and overburden consumers—as the number of platforms and viewing choices proliferate to watch sports content." Viewership across different streamers is also on the minds of brands moving forward. "Sports is such a key part of Pepsi’s DNA, specifically the NFL, and we will want to continue to reach consumers in these spaces. This is especially true if the viewership is there, which Peacock just proved with the airing of this Wild Card game," Katie Haniffy, head of media, PepsiCo Beverages, said. "For us, the challenge will continue to be connecting with consumers as content becomes more fragmented across all platforms." Additionally, Haniffy said a true test will be to see if the audience sticks around. "While the numbers were high, it will be important to understand if this is an anomaly because of the matchup in the playoff season or if consumers continue to stay on the platform," Haniffy said. Streaming heads to the goal line If the audience does stay, streaming could completely change the viewer experience, with Peacock having AI-driven shoppable and targeted ads to help marketers reach engaged consumers. But in order to do that, Benes said streamers need to lean into the freedom of their platforms rather than have experiences that mirror broadcast. "It's weird to still see them come back from commercial break, punt or kickoff the ball and go to another commercial break when they don't have to capitulate to the linear schedule," Benes said. "Peacock can do whatever the hell they want. For all this talk of addressability and dynamic ad insertion and how you can target people, the ads were nationally broadcast brands." However, the platforms will have plenty of chances to change the experience as the shift from linear to streaming forges ahead and the numbers continue to climb. "That's where I think streaming is going to go. You're going to have lower total viewership," Benes said. "But the difference is always going to continue to be less to the point that streaming becomes the default."