The Sydney Sweeney Effect Can Fade Fast for Brands, Data Suggests

Few celebrity campaigns can generate controversy and buzz as quickly or reliably as one starring Sydney Sweeney, but data suggests the long-term payoff is harder for brands to pin down In September, little over a year after American Eagle (AE) defended its “Sydney Sweeney Has Great Jeans” campaign—which was accused of promoting eugenics—a naked Sweeney starred in Novig’s “Just Sports” campaign, sparking ire from female athletes. In October, a second risqué spot followed. Earlier this week, Novig extended the push, letting people claim a piece of “Sydney’s $250k tab” ahead of the so-called “Sports Equinox,” when the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB all have games scheduled.The prediction market platform’s campaigns have claimed some early wins, with Sweeney’s two videos clocking around 100 million views on Instagram. The Wall Street Journal reported that Novig has since raised new funding at a $2 billion valuation, up from $500 million earlier this year. Novig also said first-time depositors rose more than 218% in the 20 days after the first ad’s debut compared with the 20 days before. Sweeney's knack for grabbing attention is “unparalleled,” said Sam Kane, Gymshark’s former communications boss who helped it navigate deals with YouTuber Valkyrae and others. Now founder of PR agency SKC, he questioned how much Novig’s follow-up has actually cut through. “For all the talk of ‘doubling down,’ how much coverage and exposure (no pun intended) has it got? Comparatively very little.” Novig did not reply to ADWEEK's request for further comment, but the brand is in it for the long term with Sweeney, having given her an undisclosed equity stake in the business. However, sales and purchase data ADWEEK reviewed from two of Sweeney’s previous partnerships suggest her effect tends to fade after the initial shock value wears off. Ebbs and flows for American Eagle AE numbers show both sides of the Sweeney coin. AE’s debut campaign with Sweeney launched in July 2025, and controversy aside, the retailer was keen to call it a success. AE’s chief marketing officer Craig Brommers said the partnership brought in 790,000 new U.S. customers within six weeks. In Q3 2025, AE’s comparable sales grew 1%, up from -3% the previous quarter. By November 2025, AE had gone from losing market share to gaining more than 90 basis points year over year in the family apparel category, according to data shared with ADWEEK from Consumer Edge, which analyzes anonymized U.S. credit and debit card transactions. Sweeney wasn’t the only big name AE was working with at the time, though. AE had also launched a Travis Kelce campaign in late August. On the company’s December 2025 earnings call, Jennifer Foyle, president and executive creative director for AE and Aerie, credited the two campaigns with generating 44 billion combined impressions, adding that customer loyalty grew 4% in the quarter.“The clearest improvement in spending emerged during the [2025] holiday shopping season,” explained Consumer Edge’s svp of research and market intelligence, Michael Gunther. In March, parent firm American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) reported record holiday-quarter sales of $1.8 billion, with comparable sales at the AE brand up 2%. Consumer Edge’s data shows the gains were strongest among Republicans, for whom the brand’s market share rose about 25 basis points year over year between October 2025 and March 2026. Among Democrat shoppers, it barely moved, suggesting the backlash wasn’t enough to put them off entirely.However, by the time AE brought Sweeney back for a follow-up campaign, “Syd for Short,” in April, the boost was already wearing off. In Q1 2026, comparable sales at AE fell 2%, even as AEO’s total comps rose 8% thanks to a 25% jump at sister brand Aerie. In an earnings release, AEO CEO Jay Schottenstein conceded that “results at AE were mixed” and said the company was working to “reignite the women’s business.” Sweeney’s sequel didn’t generate as much momentum. AEO’s latest results, released in September, showed AE comparable sales were still down 1% in Q2 2026 (a slight improvement on Q1). According to Gunther, AE’s market share has changed unevenly since then, “providing little evidence of a sustained improvement comparable to the original campaign’s holiday performance.” AE’s slide with younger shoppers is at least slowing. Among 18- to 24-year-olds, its market share fell only 40 basis points year over year in September, compared with a 120-basis-point drop in July, according to Consumer Edge. When ADWEEK approached AE, a spokesperson declined to comment on the Sweeney effect, saying it was in a quiet period ahead of its Q3 results. A mixed bag for Dr. Squatch In June 2025, just under 1 million fans entered a Dr. Squatch competition to win one of 100 “Bathwater Bliss” soap bars, infused with Sweeney’s real bath water. A further 5,000 bars sold out at $8 each. An accompanying ad showed the actor mocking “dirty little boys,” claiming the soap smelled like “morning wood.” Verdicts on the stunt ranged from genius to grotesque. However, John Ludeke, the brand’s then-vp of global marketing, told ADWEEK at the time that the “unhinged” campaign was designed to cut through the noise to target both men and women. Dr. Squatch said the stunt drove a 20% week-over-week jump in revenue, but Consumer Edge’s card data shows the brand’s slice of the Beauty Products market shrunk as much as 25 basis points in the two months after the campaign. Gunther noted that Consumer Edge tracks only what people buy directly from Dr. Squatch. It doesn’t show what they pick up at Walmart, Target or Amazon, or whether the campaign sent shoppers to store shelves instead of the brand’s website. Unilever, which bought Dr. Squatch for roughly $1.5 billion (€1.24 billion) in September 2025, doesn’t break out the brand’s results. Per WWD, Dr. Squatch generated more than $400 million in annual sales at the time of the acquisition, but bar soap (the focus of Sweeney’s stunt) has been a soft spot. On Unilever’s Q1 earnings call in April, CEO Fernando Fernandez flagged “some slowdown in the Dr. Squatch bar segment,” but forecast double-digit growth for the brand. In a statement, Dr. Squatch CEO Josh Friedman told ADWEEK it had worked with a range of ambassadors, including Sweeney, Alex Honnold, and comedians like James Schrader. “These partnerships have accelerated our momentum, tying the brand into culture, and helping to drive consistent double-digit growth, including this year,” he added. He described the Sweeney partnership as “memorable and successful,” saying it paved the way for the brand to launch its bodywash line. All eyes on Sweeney Social is where Sweeney makes the biggest splash, but much of the conversation centers on her rather than the brands she represents. Between September and mid-October, analytics firm Meltwater clocked 1.9 million social mentions of ‘Sydney Sweeney’ across Facebook, Instagram, X, TikTok, Reddit, and other core platforms. That number isn’t too far off the 2.29 million mentions racked up in the five weeks after American Eagle’s jeans ad landed. The brands got less traction, with only 65,500 posts mentioning both Sweeney and Novig in that timeframe, compared with 601,000 that name-checked her alongside American Eagle in 2025. Novig may be a smaller brand, but for now, Sweeney is attracting more attention than the companies paying her.

Creativity x Culture

The Sydney Sweeney Effect Can Fade Fast for Brands, Data Suggests

Novig recently doubled down with Sweeney after a strong start. But for American Eagle, her early boost faded, and Dr. Squatch’s direct sales didn’t show a lasting lift

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Rebecca Stewart

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