ADWEEK Brand Advantage: Prediction Markets Grabbed Midterm Attention. Super Bowl Is Their Next Test

In mid-October, a Times Square billboard displayed the odds of Democrats winning the Senate in the U.S. midterm elections. The sign didn’t belong to a polling firm or cable broadcaster; it was an ad for prediction platform Kalshi. The poster was a glowing reminder of how prediction market platforms—which let traders buy and sell ‘yes’ or ‘no’ contracts on a range of outcomes—are going mainstream. Kalshi’s rival Polymarket went big on marketing in October too, and so far the ROI looks good for both. A Washington Post analysis found that combined, the brands pulled in nearly $1.9 billion in wagers on the midterm vote.This election cycle proved that these new challengers had the means—and the dollars—to command attention. But questions lingered around whether they’d get the result right. Mostly, they did, predicting Democrats would take both chambers. Kalshi says its favorites won 98% of resolved races. But they weren’t perfect. Traders missed upsets, including Gov. Greg Abbott’s loss in Texas, and the New York Times found the markets did about as well as traditional forecasters for most of the election cycle.The midterms gave prediction markets their first national stage. But their next big brand-building test will come during the Super Bowl, where they’ll have to find creative ways around the NFL’s ad ban. In the short term: Prediction platforms go mainstream As well as putting its name in lights for the vote, Kalshi also built out infrastructure to support its election push with a midterms hub that put live odds next to race-by-race coverage. The move pitched the platform not just as somewhere to place a bet, but to keep up with the results. It took this even further, inking deals with publishers including CNN and Dow Jones, while running an aggressive ad campaign on Meta that rivaled super PAC spending. In the same week, Polymarket tapped The Hurt Locker director Kathryn Bigelow for its own midterms campaign, designed to introduce the platform to a broader audience. Produced by Smuggler, the ads didn’t look like typical betting spots, instead dramatizing three fictional scenarios tied to voter issues such as rising grocery and gas prices. “We wanted to bring those everyday moments to life and show how they can ripple into an election,” said Travis VanderZanden, Polymarket’s chief growth officer, in a statement. “On Polymarket, you can follow those shifts as they happen and see how expectations around the midterms change in real time.” As these platforms go mainstream, they’re also recruiting A-list talent to drive brand awareness. Dillon Brooks fronted a recent Kalshi spot, while Novig, which brands itself as a sports-only market, brought Sydney Sweeney back for a sequel after her nude debut for the brand sparked controversy. Behind the scenes, things are messier. Just days after the Bigelow spots aired, Polymarket reportedly fired its CMO Matthew Modabber, marking the latest in a long string of controversies. It’s a harbinger of the challenges ahead of building long-term credibility for brands in a category still finding its legal footing. In the long term: A Super Bowl-sized test Like their more established sports betting rivals, these platforms draw plenty of controversy, with their harshest critics saying they encourage gambling addiction and even reward insider trading. Polymarket’s internal probe into Modabber reportedly examined a campaign built on staged videos and a fake webpage. Its problems run even deeper, as the company faces a lawsuit by the State of New York. Kalshi faces a criminal case in Utah targeting both the business and its founders. Meanwhile, the NYC Council is probing the sector’s marketing practices, and the CFTC is locked in a turf war with the states over who gets to regulate it at all. Any of these tussles could limit where these brands can advertise. Public opinion is muddy, too. Most Americans believe prediction market platforms are gambling ones and oppose betting on elections, according to Reuters and Ipsos. Still, they have decent Axios Harris trust scores, and deals with the MLB, MLS and the NHL are all adding credibility to the category. Polymarket also has up to $2 billion in backing from NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange. Prediction markets’ next test will come on Feb. 14. The NFL has shut the category out of broadcasts, stadiums, and player deals, so don’t expect to see them during Super Bowl 61 on ABC and ESPN. But we’ll likely see them everywhere else: LA pop-ups, creator feeds, and on celebrity Instagram accounts. There will also be markets for the ads themselves. At Super Bowl 60, Kalshi’s market on Super Bowl advertisers did $72.2 million in volume. So while they might not get a spot in the game, these brands will still hedge their bets around it. The question remains whether they’ll be able to get as much awareness from these side plays as they would with a Big Game ad.

ADWEEK Advantage

ADWEEK Brand Advantage: Prediction Markets Grabbed Midterm Attention. Super Bowl Is Their Next Test

Polymarket, Kalshi and Novig face legal fights and NFL restrictions that limit where their ads can run

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