1 in 3 wins ... sometimes

Bottlecaps_1So this is irritating: Last week we bought nine 20-ounce Diet Pepsis, marked as part of the Pepsi/iTunes promotion, but found only one of the bottle caps was a winner. We felt a bit like the guy in the Tom Stoppard play who keeps getting heads when he flips the coin. We guess this is a bug in a promotion like this—that since the odds of winning are so good (they’re 1 in 3), it’s easier to get on what feels like a losing streak. Of course, having said that, the odds suggest that our next three bottles should all be winners, which gives us some hope. Hmm ... why do we find ourselves wondering when the next bus leaves for Atlantic City?

—Posted by Tim Nudd

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