As expected, the Television Bureau of Advertising revised downward its 2009 forecast for local broadcast TV. The new forecast calls for spot TV revenue to decline between 7 and 11 percent, compared to the -1 to -5 percent forecast issued in early September. Local spot is expected to be down 4 to 8 percent (compared to the more lukewarm forecast of up 2 to -1 percent). Taking the biggest hit will be national spot, now predicted to plummet between 11.5 and 15.5 percent (compared to a decline of -7 and -10 percent).
For 2008, the TVB is estimating that total 2008 spot revenue will decline 7.1 percent, instead of coming in flat.
Blame the economy. "These are not happy numbers to report, but they are the new reality," said Chris Rohrs, president of the TVB, which derived its estimates based on a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station rep firms and independent research.