Outlook 2008: Print

NEW YORK With an almost 16 percent increase in ad pages in 2007, Wenner Media's Men's Journal continues to share the gains of the men's lifestyle magazine category, which itself rose nearly 13 percent, per the Mediaweek Monitor. Compared to a weak first quarter of 2006, the magazine has been selling well in 2008, with ad pages up 39 percent in January and 81.5 percent in February, helped by auto, luxury goods and liquor brands. While on a roll, publisher Will Schenck is not naive about the challenges he and his fellow sales execs face in the year ahead. "Anybody who has a brain is at least somewhat concerned about the realities of the credit market and consumer markets," he says. "What we're trying to do is book as much as possible in the first half."With core categories like auto and tech still wobbly, a threatening ad recession and prognosticators downshifting their outlooks for spending, 2008 is shaping up to be another challenging year; and compounding the projected ad softness come soaring postal and paper prices."It's going to be a tough year for all," says Steve Greenberger, evp, media director at SLG Advertising. "For [marketers] who were going to be aggressive, they're going to be more guarded. For those who were more guarded, they're going to hold back completely."The pharmaceutical category was a cure-all this past year, with pages up 5.9 percent in the first nine months, per Publishers Information Bureau. But some industry watchers wonder if federal scrutiny of new drugs will put a damper on launches and related marketing support. Meanwhile, experts see no recovery for tech and home-related categories. Even beauty and luxury spending, two stalwarts of the magazine industry, could be headed for a correction if consumers rein in spending. If that's the case, less affluent titles might feel the pinch, Greenberger says. "They [luxury advertisers] might just stop at The Robb Report and the hotel publications," he says.Nancy Berger Cardone, vp, publisher at Condé Nast's Allure, expects plenty of skin-care and hair-care product launches in '08, but acknowledges the economy could put a blemish on sales. "It is somewhat of a recession-resistant category, but it is still somewhat dependent on retail traffic," she says. "When gas prices are up, it's going to affect Wal-Mart, and it's going to affect beauty and personal care." Print's pains extend to the newspaper industry. Despite a few bright spots like The New York Times' national ad picture, the outlook for 2008 is generally dismal. At UBS' year-end media gathering, most publishers were cautious about their business, dragged down by softening retail and classified ads. Online ad revenue charged ahead 21.1 percent in the third quarter of 2007, per the Newspaper Association of America—not enough to offset a 9 percent dip in print spending. Publishers signal that they will attempt to offset declines in print in the year to come by launching new online ventures, bolstering existing ones and hatching ancillary products.Like their magazine counterparts, newspaper publishers also are looking at markedly higher prices for raw materials. Top newsprint producer AbitibiBowater announced a $60/ton hike for the first quarter.Bright spots in print are hard to find, but there are a few. Jan Weinstein, svp, group media director at DraftFCB, reckons there could be a short-term shift of dollars out of TV if audiences continue to decline, possibly benefitting weekly magazines and the Web. "We may see real changes in people's habits," Weinstein says. "There could be a longer-term potential in terms of mass audiences."

Brand Marketing

Outlook 2008: Print

Lucia Moses

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Lucia Moses