Are TV's Men Coming Back? Buyers Say Drop Is Permanent

Nielsen Media Research last week issued its answer to a question bedeviling media buyers and sellers: Changes in methodology account for some of the dramatic decline in TV viewership among young males, but not most of it. Whatever the cause, most buyers believe the bulk of those consumers won't be back.The networks, still unhappy with Nielsen, were set to meet with the ratings provider today. David Poltrack, CBS evp of research and planning, acknowledged that "some of what we are seeing is real changes in viewing," but maintained that "Nielsen can't definitively tell us what is happening with 18-34. They can tell us what they get, but we have to extend the research." Nielsen, owned by Adweek parent VNU, said males 18-34 are watching about 8 percent less prime-time TV this fall than they did last year and about 6 percent less overall. Its white paper said up to 40 percent of the dropoff could be attributed in part to improvements in its methodology, including changes to the People Meter and the makeup of its samples. "That doesn't mean those improvements weren't the right thing to do," said Nielsen marketing vp Karen Gyimesi.In response to the network/Nielsen clash, buyers said it was time to stop shooting the messenger and look for alternatives. "The broadcasters' reaction is natural," said media consultant Steve Soldano, former CEO for Publicis Groupe's Optimedia. "I don't know too many marketers who buy broadcast television to reach men 18-24. And that group is just not coming back. It's just not the primary medium."Nielsen, which reprocessed its data in response to broadcasters' complaints, suggests other factors for the dropoff in the white paper: Young men 18-24 are spending 9 percent more time overall watching DVDs and videos, and 33 percent more time playing videogames during prime time. Nielsen addressed the theory that dependent young males—those living with their parents—are under-represented, saying it has added to the sample, making it more accurate. As to criticism that it should measure personal video recorders such as TiVo, Nielsen claimed adding PVRs would have a minuscule effect. "The networks are concerned because if this is due to a methodological change, there will not be a bounce-back," noted Lyle Schwartz, director of media research at WPP Group's Mediaedge:cia. "In previous years, when we've seen declines, we see the numbers starting to bounce back, sort of like the ebb and flow of a tide. But this could be a more fundamental change."And that is the crux of the issue for media agency buyers looking at long-term trends. In a Nov. 10 report on young male sports viewership, Steve Sternberg, director of audience analysis at Interpublic Group's Magna Global USA, noted: "Last season at this time, NFL football ratings among men 18-34 were up a startling 17 percent versus the previous season. Yet strangely, there was no outcry from the broadcast networks about how a one-season increase of that magnitude made no sense. ... Last year was the anomaly. Eliminate last season's numbers, and this year's ratings are perfectly in line with previous trends."Joe Uva, worldwide CEO of Omnicom Group's OMD, said buyers need "to ensure that we're giving full consideration to alternative media like online, radio, gaming and wireless [to reach the demo] if, in fact, this becomes an endemic problem." But Uva said he's not giving up on TV yet. "I want to see two months of trend data on 24 and The O.C. before I really get worried," he said.

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Are TV's Men Coming Back? Buyers Say Drop Is Permanent

David Kaplan

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David Kaplan