Producing this sort of forecast is frought with danger. Five years (technically less than that) is a long time in the tech world. For example, there wasn’t any iOS (Apple) market five years ago. Today IDC is forecasting this then unknown platform will have 15.7% marketshare (3rd behind Android and Symbian). I placed IDC’s data in an column chart for easier interpretation.
Some of IDC’s forecasts are not surprising:
– Android will continue to dominate the mobile market with 45% of market share in 2015
– Symbian will disappear with a 0.2% share (effectively zero)
– iOS (iPhone) will be flat going from a 15.7% marketshare in 2011 to 15.3% in 2015.
There are, however, a pair of surprises:
– BlackBerry will dip only slightly from 14.9% to 13.7%. My feeling is that unless RIM can turn things around, their marketshare will be significantly lower than it is today
– Windows Phone (or whatever it is called in 2015) will rise from 5.5% marketshare in 2011 to 28% in 2015. This will place it in a distant but strong second place in the market behind Android. Despite my personal fondness for Windows Phone (the HTC HD7 is my primary phone), I find this difficult to believe.