ZenithOptimedia is revising its 2013 global economic growth estimates to 3.9 percent, to $518 billion, down from the 4.1 percent increase forecast in December. The Publicis Groupe media company said it made the change because 2012 turned out to be better than expected, making for tougher comparisons this year. By 2015, ZenithOptimedia predicts growth of 5.6 percent.
“The consensus among economic forecasters is that the global economy will gradually build up speed over the next three years. The Eurozone should start to pull out of recession towards the end of this year, which will help stimulate world trade,” said Jonathan Barnard, ZenithOptimedia’s head of forecasting. “We expect the global ad market to strengthen in step with the economy, although ad expenditure will remain behind GDP growth for the rest of our forecast period. Our forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged at 5 percent and 5.6 percent respectively.”
Internet advertising is fueling most of the growth in ad spending and ZenithOptimedia forecasts it will grow by 14.4 percent in 2013 while traditional media will grow only 1.6 percent. Display is the fastest-growing Internet medium, with annual growth of 20 percent. Those gains are being driven by the rise of online video and social media advertising, each of which is growing at 30 percent a year. Paid search, boosted by more product information and images within ads, is expected to grow by 13 percent a year to 2015.
Much of that Internet growth is coming at the expense of print and ZenithOptimedia forecasts that by 2015 online ad spending will overtake print. Internet advertising will increase its share of the ad market from 18 percent in 2012 to 23.4 percent in 2015 while advertising in newspapers and magazines will continue to shrink at an average of 1 percent to 2 percent a year.
As has been the case since the global economic downturn in 2007, the mature markets of North America, Western Europe and Japan are lagging the rest of the world. ZenithOptimedia expects them to grow just 1.8 percent this year, as they continue to be weighed down by the Eurozone crisis. Rising markets—countries outside the mature economies—are forecast to grow 8.2 percent on average this year. Growth in rising and mature markets is expected to reach 9.4 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively, in 2015.