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UM's Coen Sees 6% Growth

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NEW YORK Global ad spending will grow 6 percent in 2006 to $605 billion, while U.S. spending will increase 5.8 percent to $292 billion, according to Robert Coen, chief forecaster at Interpublic Group's Universal McCann.

Coen made his projections today at the UBS Media Conference here.

"We're not looking for a boon, but we think things will get a little better in 2006," Coen said.

Olympics and political campaign spending will help boost the dollars compared to 2005, which Coen described as a "pretty poor year for TV" as a result of marketers shifting money to direct mail and the Internet.

Coen estimated that 2005 ad growth would total 4.6 percent with a 6 percent climb in national ad spending. Local ad spending, however, will be up only 2 percent.

The top advertising categories, including automotive, prescription drugs, cosmetics and movies, have been "sluggish" throughout 2005 and will end up roughly flat in spending for the year, he said.

Other ad spend predictions coming at the conference were generally in line with Coen's. For example, ZenithOptimedia CEO Steve King told attendees to expect 6 percent worldwide growth next year and 5 percent growth in the U.S. [Adweek, Dec. 5].

"We expect stable growth" for the next three years, King said.

David Poltrack, evp, research and planning at CBS, predicted a 7 percent climb in spending for the four major TV networks next year, but did not provide a dollar amount. Coen projects the four networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox) will climb 6.5 percent to $18 billion.