In Mad Dash, Bush And Kerry Flood Swing States With Ads

George W. Bush and John Kerry debated face to face for the final time last week, but with just two weeks left in an ever-tightening race, both campaigns are working to get their message heard during the final sprint. The Bush/Cheney and Kerry/Edwards teams are both targeting TV ads in a handful of states that could tip the scales in the presidential election. Though many top media markets—including New York, Chicago and Los Angeles—will be left out of the money, TV spending by the campaigns and their related supporters could reach $100 million over the next two weeks, according to Evan Tracey, COO of TNS Media Intelligence/ Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks such spending. The Arlington, Va., company said total TV spending on presidential ads from April 1 to Sept. 30 was more than $330 million, most of that from the Kerry and Bush camps proper and the Republican and Democratic national committees. As of last week, CMAG estimated TV spending on the race had reached some $40 million a week. "That number is only going to go up," Tracey said last week.Most of that spending is being concentrated in Ohio and Florida, key swing states that each absorbed more than $70 million in presidential-campaign TV spending through last Tuesday, according to CMAG. The other states that both camps perceive to be in play and that are expected to see heavy doses of ads are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Minnesota and New Mexico. The tactic has left a majority of the country virtually untouched by presidential advertising. In a study released last week, Nielsen Monitor-Plus and the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project said that 87 percent of presidential advertising was reaching just 27 percent of the nation's electorate. "On a macro level, it tells us that it's going to be a handful of states that decide this election," said Joel Rivlin, deputy director at the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project in Madison, Wis. Two states that no longer seem to be in play are Missouri and Arizona. Bush and Kerry have both cut back on advertising in those states, effectively taking them off the electoral table, at least for now. (Bush is expected to win both.) "[If] we see polling that indicates us as competitive, we'll go back in," said Kerry senior communications adviser Debra DeShong. She also noted that the campaign has recommitted to advertising in Colorado, despite reports earlier last week that the Democrats had abandoned that state as well. Bush officials did not return calls by press time. With time short and money still plentiful, the campaigns are likely to redirect funds withdrawn from abandoned states. With its cross-section of Anglo and Hispanic populations, Miami, for instance, has more political spots running than any other place in the country, according to Pat Roberts, head of the Florida Association of Broadcasters. "It's pretty much political advertising wall-to-wall, with the presidential [race] being the biggest spending," Roberts said. "I think every day each side ups the ante a little more." Neither Nielsen Monitor-Plus nor the University of Wisconsin Advertising Project would offer estimates for how much might be spent in which state over the final weeks. While the candidates are granted the lowest unit rate, there are no pricing restrictions on organizations such as MoveOn.org and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which may be charged a premium as Election Day draws closer, according to Roberts. "If anyone's paying a high price, it's the issue ads," he said. According to Randi Goldklank, local sales manager for Fox affiliate WSVN, the Miami area will see more than $35 million in political ad spending this year (including U.S. senatorial and congressional campaigns), 75 percent more than the $20 million spent in 2000. About half of that has been spent since Oct. 1. "It's out of control," Goldklank said. "We basically started in March and have not stopped." Still, ad dollars could shift based on polling data and news events. "There will be some flux that will be event-driven," said CMAG's Tracey. Meanwhile, McCann Erickson last week polled members of its in-house MU30 team of employees under 30 to gauge how they responded to presidential ads this year. As the chart shows, they tended to have seen more Bush ads but felt Kerry's ads did a better job of making them feel more positive toward the candidate. The poll also asked which single issue is most critical. Iraq was the top response (cited by 29 percent), followed by homeland security (12 percent), the economy (10 percent) and foreign policy (7 percent).

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In Mad Dash, Bush And Kerry Flood Swing States With Ads

Aaron Baar

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Aaron Baar