Jonathan Handel does “the math” — which is good, because math is hard — and determines that Hollywood won’t see a contract until 2009.
1. If Membership First wins the election overwhelmingly, and if SAG members overwhelmingly vote in the SAG survey (a push-poll, designed to influence people’s votes) to have the Guild continue pushing hard for a better deal (i.e., 85% or more affirmative, and a good turnout), then MF will be emboldened to call for a strike authorization vote. If that vote achieves the requisite 75% approval level (a high level, which is why it might take as much as 85% affirmative on the poll, particularly given SAG’s embarrassing failure to defeat the AFTRA deal), then SAG will have gained significant leverage against the studios. All of these conditions have to apply.
In the wake of his online video interviews with reps from Membership First and United for Strength, Jonathan tells us he’ll be interviewing independent candidates this week:
Last week, I did live Internet online video interviews with representatives of Membership First and Unite for Strength, the two slates battling for control of the Screen Actors Guild Board. Those interviews were widely viewed and blogged about.
But — those slates account for 64 of the 84 candidates. There are 20 independent candidates, most of whom have less visibility.
So, this week, I’m interviewing the independent candidates. I expect 8-10 of the 20 independents will appear. These will be 1 on 1’s, not a panel or a debate. It’s an unprecedented chance for members to discover the independents and evaluate them. Your coverage is invited.
The interviews will be this Friday at 2:00 p.m. Pacific / 5:00 p.m. and will last for approximately 2 hours, depending on the exact number of candidates. Go to http://www.jhandel.com for the URL. Please tune in!