At 12 p.m. EST, Chief Justice John Roberts will administer the oath of office to Barack Obama, making him the 44th president of the United States. Besides all the pageantry and formal balls, the inauguration marks the conclusion of the longest, costliest and most extraordinary political campaign in history.
Media pundits have concluded that if Franklin D. Roosevelt was the first “radio president” and John F. Kennedy the first “television president,” then Obama will be the first “Internet president.”
And now, the oath of office and subsequent inaugural address will undoubtedly be the most-watched video event ever.
However, we won’t really know just how big a video event it will be. The reason is lack of viewing information across the three screens — TV, computer and mobile — on which the speech can be watched. This issue had forced NBC Universal to create a Total Audience Measurement Index (TAMI), which employed several audience research companies to measure the various video platforms developed for last year’s summer Olympics.
The inauguration will be available on far more channels than the Olympics.
Nielsen has been the currency of TV ratings for years. With a few exceptions, however, Nielsen’s sample consists almost exclusively of in-home viewing in sample households.
Obama’s inauguration undoubtedly will be watched by potentially millions of people on TV sets outside the home, such as those in offices and schools. These viewers will go unmeasured. Additionally, millions of Americans will likely watch the inauguration online, again at work, in school or at Wi-Fi hotspots around the nation and other locations.
Recent major sporting events that took place during work hours can help us gauge the impact of online viewing. According to CBS, 92 percent of the 4.8 million people streaming March Madness did so at work. The U.S. Open golf playoff, held on a Monday afternoon, drew at least 4 million streams. The inauguration, which will be available on far more broadband video outlets, including foreign-language Web sites, will likely generate substantially higher online numbers.
While there are a few research companies that can measure online video, many of the Web sites streaming the speech will be too small for accurate measurement. In all likelihood, an aggregate “census” count of broadband-video Web sites carrying the speech would depict a more accurate number. Video clips of the speech will also be uploaded and viewed countless times on Facebook and YouTube and other Web sites. The speech will also be e-mailed around the world.
Mobile, the third screen, which will have the smallest impact on overall viewing, has the least amount of viewing data available. With over 10 million phones equipped with video capabilities, the inauguration could draw several million viewers. In all likelihood, most mobile viewers will be millennials who received all those campaign text messages, and who volunteered and voted last year.
The inauguration will be a watershed event not only for the nation, but technology. People will have the opportunity to watch the inauguration on various screens at any location — and to replay the event, or portions thereof, anytime thereafter. It could be the most watched television event outside the home. It will be the most watched event on broadband video and on mobile screens. Unfortunately, we will probably never truly know how many total viewers there were.
Brad Adgate is svp, director of research at Horizon Media. He can be reached at Badgate@horizonmedia.com
