Highly-respected media forecaster Jack Myers says he sees an advertising slump for the next 18 to 36 months. While national TV is expected to hold up reasonably well, local is a different story. “Local media will struggle because retail will be soft and almost all categories like automotive will be hurt by the economy, Myers said. “I see very few positive indicators on the horizon, if any.” But there are a couple bright spots. Explains Kevin Downey in Media Life:
Analysts say media types that are relatively inexpensive will weather this economic slump relatively well, including the internet and out-of-home media like digital billboards and cinema advertising.
Unfortunately, even the most aggressive internet efforts won’t make up for the decline in local TV spending. They will, however, help soften the blow a little in the short term. But if Myers’ forecast of an extended ad recession comes true, I suspect local TV online revenue will suffer considerably due to a lack of diversification: the vast majority of this revenue is tied to TV advertisers and automotive classifieds. This lack of diversification will become painfully apparent in the “perfect storm” of 2009: recession, no Olympics, no political and the February switch to digital — which has been a terrible, unavoidable distraction when local TV needed to be investing more online.
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