“iPredict allows you to make predictions around news events,” explains MSNBC.com’s Rex Sorgatz. “The application visualizes the public’s votes against your vote, storing your previous predictions with a cookie. When you return to the prediction later, you can change your vote. You see how your vote has changed over time, graphed out in comparison to everyone else’s prediction.” Here’s how I voted on this question (the green box), compared to the public’s average (the red line):
Rex goes on to explain, “Although we tend to think of news stories as ways to inform us of the past, I contend that every news story has an interrogative kernel hidden inside — a question about the future. Twelve people killed in Iraq? That story makes me wonder about the future of the war. LeBron James scores 25 straight points? That story makes me wonder if he really will be the next Jordan. Although news is immediately a historical account, it is also implicitly a gamble on the future, a suggestion of where things will be.”
As new stories about the topic occur, they’ll be mapped (and linked) on the same graph so you can see how new developments change the vote. Pretty cool, eh?
ABC station KGO has been experimenting with “ABC 7 Futures Market,” a similar yet simplier approach to mapping predictions on stories. It’s powered by Inkling Markets.