One of the long, long, longstanding predictions here at One LR Plaza has been this: the first billion-dollar opening weekend will come when a movie is released in the theaters, online, on DVD and VOD simultaneously. Of all the predictions I’ve made, this one usually gets me the most trash talk. But I stand by it, because it has to happen. The only way to fight piracy is to out-pirate the pirates. And the movie studios can no longer ignore that we have great home theater systems.
The road to this prediction may be getting a little shorter. The Wall Street Journal (whose online offering is free this weekend) reports that studios are in discussion to distribute new release films to homes possibly weeks after opening in theaters.
“Time Warner Cable Inc. (has) made the first formal pitch to the Hollywood studios for what is known as “home theater on demand.” The cable company presented a variety of scenarios. But the main one, which has received early support from some studio executives, would allow consumers to watch a movie at home just 30 days after its theatrical release – far earlier than the usual four months – for roughly $20 to $30 a pop. That proposal is still being debated and talks are fluid. People close to the matter say that several studios could sign on to a version of it as soon as the fall, making the first movies available on such a system by the end of the year or early 2011.”
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The article lists major studios showing interest, and cites one of the major of reasons: DVD revenues have dropped 27% since their peak in 2004. And while ticket sales are climbing, the revenue is not enough to make up for the money lost to shrinking DVD sales.
Does $20 – $30 sound like a lot to you? Because it seems perfectly reasonable to me. We boring suburbanites, between babysitters, snacks and ticket prices, are paying $75 and up for a night out (not including dinner). I’ll gladly pony up $25 for my wife and I to see a film still in the theaters. We’ll make our own popcorn, too.
This will piss off a lot of theater owners, but they’ll have to deal. We’ve changed the way we get our entertainment. Now they have to change the way they deliver it. (HT to LR Blogger Emeritus Michael Gay)