Though the UK trade publications have been full of doom and gloom predictions for retailers, claiming that this Christmas might be the worst for shopping in 25 years. Richard Ratner at Seymour Pierce told Publishing News: “The problem for booksellers is margin. Volumes may actually be up, but we think booksellers are being slaughtered on margin. I think they’re in for a sticky Christmas, which means it will be sticky afterwards.”
But publishers – and perhaps surprisingly – some independents sounded much happier this week than they have for some time. HarperCollins Sales Director David Swarbrick expressed such optimism: Value for the year to date is up 2 percent, and for November it was up 5 percent. If you look at other industries, they’re all down, so we think those figures are good. I think WHSmith are doing fantastically with the big books, Borders are doing better than they did last year with the big titles, Amazon are amazing, Tesco are doing very well and Waterstone’s have everything to play for.” Among independents, Anna Dreda of Wenlock Books said November was 17.5% up on last year “and December so far is the best ever.”
So who will be proved right? Time will always tell, and financial analysts do tend to be more cautious (and the publishing industry more inclined to turn hope into spin) but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see some particularly bad 4th Quarter news for publishing and bookselling types in a few months’ time…