Eric Picard’s Predictions From 2005 Have (Sorta) Come True

By Matt Van Hoven 

Back in 2005, Microsoft’s Director of Advertising Strategy Eric Picard made a list of predictions about 2010, and published it on ClickZ. What’s different about this list (than the others you’ve seen): it’s five years old, and mostly right.

Here’s a bit of what he said:

1. Free Wi-Fi networks will eclipse digital cellular networks in coverage, sparking a revolution in free calling over IP-based networks. Portable digital information consumption devices will also explode. (Almost made it! But Google is at the forefront, which must scare the piss out of the providers)

2. Most TV content will be consumed over the Internet by download, and on demand over very high speed broadband networks. The TV networks will do just fine, and most content will be consumed for free with advertising, just as it is today. (Heyo, right on, Eric. However, the networks are far from “OK” &#151 though they may be in a few years)

3. Advertising will be much more relevant and effective due to appropriately implemented targeting and filtering technologies that will anonymously identify people across all media. Ultimately (maybe more than five years out), this type of targeting will extend across all forms of advertising, even what today is considered offline. (Yeah, so now there’s kiosks that scan your face and serve ads according to age, race, sex &#151 so there’s your “considered offline”. But the “Advertising will be much more relevant and effective” part is questionable as privacy laws about such technologies come into play)

4. Some technology advance will radically change the way the world works, and it will be completely unexpected. This could happen any time, but certainly within five years. (Twitter is software, but along with smartphones serves to radically change how we communicate, access the Web, interact in that space)

Completely right? Never! But not bad for five years ago. We can’t remember if in 2005 TV-on-the-Web seemed possible. Same goes for the other stuff. Hell, back then Facebook was still coolish, and you couldn’t even play games yet (not counting the “change your roommate’s status to “likes men” game). So, good jorb, Eric. Now, please accept our invitation to come on the podcast and talk about it.

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