Variety TV critic Brian Lowry takes a look at CNN’s ratings surge due to the events in the Middle East, North Africa and Japan (subscription may be required). In particular, Lowry turns his focus to CNN’s use of cume numbers to cite its reach and influence:
Those numbers have long demonstrated the radio-like dilemma CNN faces: Its cumulative audience, or “cume,” is generally higher, in much the way more motorists listen to news radio — for traffic, weather, scores — a few minutes at a time. But its average audience at any given moment is significantly lower, due to lengthier tune-in for Fox and MSNBC’s opinion hosts, where the format approximates talkradio…
Normally, in other words, making claims about wider reach isn’t good for much. Ratings are sold based on who saw the commercials, not who dropped by during the week.
What reach does mean, though, is when people seek out cable news in heightened numbers, CNN often serves as their default setting. Even with cellphone video and feeds from international partners, rivals can’t match its web of international correspondents — and MSNBC, reluctant to break away for news even out of canned prison documentaries, appears to have little interest in trying.
The public now seems to be losing interest in the foreign news, and viewers are turning out on the coverage. From Mon.-Thurs. last week CNN was down -39% in total viewers and -47% in the demo in primetime when compared to Mon.-Thurs. the week before. Total day ratings saw declines of -32% and -40% in those categories.
With viewers losing interest, the cable news regulars will continue to watch the Rachel Maddows and Sean Hannitys of the world, while the rest of the viewing public will turn their attention to “Dancing With the Stars,” or whichever other entertainment program most interests them.
What Lowry does not mention, but is also worth noting, is that CNN cannot really monetize the ratings surge it saw over the last month or two. Some of the highest-rated coverage was commercial-free, and due to the complexities of TV ad sales, the network is not likely to see a huge bump in revenue from those programs that did see higher ratings. There is the added problem that major brands would rather not be associated with disasters.
As Lowry notes, CNN is still the default for the average TV viewer that does not tune-in to TV news regularly. The best bet for CNN is to leverage that brand recognition and push for higher carriage fees.
If Fox News can get over $1 a subscriber from the cable and satellite companies, surely CNN can aim higher than the $0.58 SNL Kagan estimates it currently receives (and that includes HLN as well).