Before the pandemic, retail was already troubled, with an elevated default rate of about 7% at the end of December 2019 despite years of economic growth. But Covid-19 proved to be an extra hill many could not climb.
Since the beginning of the year, roughly three dozen major retail, restaurant and apparel brands have filed for bankruptcy, the most recent of which include off-price chain Stein Mart, department store banner Lord & Taylor and men’s apparel retailer Tailored Brands, parent of Men’s Wearhouse.
Those bankruptcies propelled the retail leveraged loan default rate to a record 18.9% in August, according to credit rating agency Fitch. (The default rate is a percentage of all retail loans outstanding that went into default over the past 12 months.) While a large number of distressed retailers have defaulted, largely by filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, there are still several that remain endangered and face potentially fatal near-term risks—namely, the lack of a second stimulus package, according to U.S. rating agencies Fitch, S&P and Moody’s.
Among the largest issuers at risk are department store Belk, apparel retailer Lands’ End, crafts supplier Jo-Ann Stores, music instrument retailer Guitar Center and mattress purveyor Serta Simmons Bedding, LLC. Also on rating agencies’ watchlists are special occasion supplier Party City, apparel retailer J.Jill, brand management firm Iconix Brand Group and online jewelry purveyor Blue Nile.
Defaults by Belk and Jo-Ann in particular by the end of the year would push the industry default rate even higher to 25%, according to Fitch.
The good news for many retailers is that U.S. retail and food services sales were up 2.7% year over year in July to about $536 billion, according to advance estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. And as stores open in tandem with layoffs and renegotiated rents, retailers have been able to significantly reduce their cash burn, said David Silverman, a retail analyst at Fitch. This means the industry is regaining solvency.
“Consumers have spent more than we expected them to be spending during the quarantine,” said Sarah Wyeth, lead retail analyst at S&P, citing retailers that sell home goods, grocers and fast-food restaurants as all performing particularly well.
Foot traffic is also gradually improving, though still impacted by Covid-19 limitations. Between the weeks of July 13 and Aug. 10, foot traffic for retail improved to a 13% decline from 15% year over year, according to data provided by Placer.ai.
There are still plenty of reasons for merchants to be concerned. Though Covid-19 appears to be in retreat in many parts of the U.S., the virus is surging in certain states. Efforts to contain the outbreak in the Southeast have been complicated by the recent devastation wreaked by Hurricane Laura.
“We’re very skeptical that retail will continue its momentum,” Wyeth said.
The most immediate danger economically speaking, however, is a stalemate between Congress and the White House over a second stimulus package to succeed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act, which provided Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) for those left unemployed by Covid-19.
Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the overall economy, and continued impasse over a successive package, which poses the largest risk to recovery, could endanger any recent gains, said Wyeth. Silverman concurred, saying it is clear the stimulus supported consumer spending.
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