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Facebook developer Jesse Farmer has slurped the Developer Forums for the last 3 months and found some powerful trends: since January, posts per day are down 51%, and and the number of contributing developers is down 27%. In addition, Farmer has tracked daily active user levels for apps launched during that same time period, and the numbers correlate: the later apps have been launched, the lower daily activity levels have been. Farmer concludes that it’s getting harder to have success on the Facebook Platform, and developers are turning their interests elsewhere.
While it’s clear from Farmer’s numbers that developer activity peaked in January, the most important signals of the Facebook Platform economy are ultimately not forum posts but rather financials.