Did U.S. Election Polls Fail? Should Publishers Care?
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Many media stories imply that the polling profession suffered a catastrophic failure in the recent presidential election because the national polling consensus was that Clinton would win by a comfortable margin of 3 to 4 points. Now that the absentee ballots have been counted, that forecast turns out to be fairly close since Clinton won by 2 points. So the national polls were respectably within the “confidence interval” of normal statistics.
However the state-level polls, which determine the composition of the Electoral College, were another matter altogether.
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