Publishers Look Beyond Politics to Mitigate Deflating 'Trump Bump'

In the weeks and months before Election Day, media organizations have been considering the possibilities of life after President Donald Trump and what that means for traffic and subscription rates. Unsurprisingly, publisher website traffic and cable viewership has been eye-popping this week. The Guardian recorded its highest-ever digital traffic on Nov. 4 reaching more than 190 million page views and 52.9 million unique browsers globally in 24 hours. CNN Digital also broke records that day, as 116 million unique visitors logged on to the site. The Washington Post had its "highest number of pageviews in history by over 40%." For The Washington Post, that traffic led to a "surge" in subscribers, thanks to years of assiduously building a framework to grow and retain its subscriber base, said chief marketing officer Miki King. Bloomberg Media has also seen subscriber gains this past week. On the local news front, digital subscriptions for The Philadelphia Inquirer rose 83%. "The Trump Bump" refers to spike in news interest at the beginning of the president's term. These spikes in web traffic and viewership tended to be triggered by the latest presidential controversy, no matter or trivial. Some publishers claim the Trump Bump was ephemeral. But for most, the breathless coverage of the president has served as an addictive shot in the arm for publishers’ digital businesses. As of this writing, it appears the expected end of the Trump era is upon us. And publishers feel in danger of that extreme reader interest deflating. Pushing readers beyond politics The New York Times now has 7 million subscribers. For the first time, the company is generating more revenue from digital subscribers than print (which is a statement about the macro downward trend of print subscriptions). The Times is not reliant on any single story or topic to drive its growth, said CEO Meredith Kopit Levien. “In fact, the breadth of our core news report is both a differentiator and a driver of our business," she said on its third-quarter earnings call this week. Each additional topic someone engages with on The Times increases their likelihood of subscribing by 50%, the publisher said. And it’s not just politics that people are reading: Around 80% of readers go beyond politics to read other subjects each week. The popular Games and Cooking properties have 1.4 million subscribers combined. The Times will also continue investing in ancillary revenue lines like affiliate sites such as Wirecutter. It is also banking on audio, as the company was buoyed by its acquisition of subscription audio app Audm in March this year. The Washington Post has also invested in non-politics coverage areas like technology, investigative, travel and food, said King. Nonetheless, investors anticipate a slump in subscription growth under a Biden administration. “If [Trump] is no longer President, this bump will fade,” said independent media analyst Alex DeGroote. “The post-Trump world may feel very boring, and this may impact news consumption.” Without an antagonist, those titles who have set themselves up in opposition to the president may lose subscribers who paid as a political act of support. Not having Trump in office could have implications on a media organization like CNN’s identity and purpose; it's all about that “symbiotic relationship.” However, Trump and interest in his pronouncements are unlikely to disappear. It’s possible that Twitter might crack down more on his more salty tweets. Media outlets then face another existential dilemma on how much oxygen to give his words. Deals can be dangerous In the US over the last few months, the election frenzy has protected post-pandemic traffic fatigue, said James Henderson, CEO of Zephr which helps publishers drive subscribers. Traffic, and so subscriber bumps, will plateau in the next few months. The current economic crunch means there is less disposable cash to spend on discretionary items like subscriptions, he said. This squeeze adds a higher risk to publisher potential churn. The temptation, for some, is to offer bargain discounts to drive up acquisitions. But all that will do is reduce overall revenue per subscriber and lifetime customer value. Some are running Election Day specials. The Los Angeles Times is running a subscription that costs $4 for four months or $98 for a year. The Chicago Tribune's masthead is promoting a '$1 for two months' offer. The San Francisco Chronicle and Houston Chronicle are also running discount offers of 99 cents for 12 weeks, according to CNN's Reliable Sources. Discounts are "worrying,” said Henderson. He anticipates high churn rates from coronavirus subscribers in the coming months. “Pulling people into these [subscription offers] at a really low price is dangerous. It’s not necessarily down to deep subscriber strategy. What we are seeing is that more effective use of data to convert is working, more personalization of the customer journey. Increasingly, people are experimenting with the composition of the product.” One solution involves unbundling sections. Offering audiences access to just the sports section at a lower price, for example, is proving fruitful, Henderson added. More resilient models According to data from Mather Economics, via Zephr, the amount of traffic hitting publisher paywalls has not gone up since February. That could be related to the rise in subscriptions. But it could also be due to non-traditional side-doors to subscribing, like newsletters or partnerships with other media organizations. Of course, it could signal that publishers are getting more sophisticated at getting relevant content to the right person, resulting in converting readers at a higher rate. “The model is becoming more resilient to big swings in the news cycle,” said Kopit Levien. “We saw that after the 2016 election, and we see it after other big news events—net subscription additions go up significantly, and after they crest, they settle in at a higher point than before in part because, with each passing quarter and year, we get steadily better at executing.” Others are bullish on reader revenue as an expected and proven model, as long as the content is relevant. “I have no doubt that subscriptions will continue to grow,” said Alice Pickthall, a senior analyst at Enders. “There are more quality news providers seeking online reader payments now than in previous years, and incumbents are able to convert more readers to subscribers as they build knowledge and expertise.”

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Publishers Look Beyond Politics to Mitigate Deflating 'Trump Bump'

Publishers report record traffic this week, but wonder how long it will last

Lucinda Southern

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Lucinda Southern