4 Predictions from Media Executives for 2023

As the media industry heads into yet another uncertain year, Adweek spoke with five publishing executives to see what they expect to come in 2023. After nearly three years of unpredictability, confident predictions are in short supply. There is general consensus that the first quarter will be difficult, but several expressed optimism about the back end of the year. Publishers have responded to the market ambiguity by focusing on the factors they can control, as well as the challenges and opportunities they know with assurance lie ahead. “There is so much uncertainty in the ad market now it is impossible to make any predictions,” said Dotdash Meredith chief executive Neil Vogel. “What I do know is that history shows publishers that have great brands and proven performance, and that provide a safe and effective environment for advertisers, will do relatively well no matter what is happening in the broader market.” Platforms Are Pivoting to Video. Publishers, Again, Follow Suit Competition heats up for digital subscriptions Publishers across the industry embraced digital subscriptions at the onset of the pandemic as a means of reducing their reliance on digital advertising. But the heady days of that digital land grab have ended, and a number of publishers saw their subscriber growth slow or even decline in 2022. Now, as the economy lurches into its second year of stagnation, publishers will have to fight harder to prove their value to consumers, said Bloomberg Media chief executive Scott Havens. “During a tougher economic environment, we'll see subscription-dependent content providers finding themselves engaged in a brutal customer-retention battle,” Havens said. “They will be forced to aggressively super-serve their customers with enhanced value propositions and more reasonable pricing.” In 2022, subscription strategy tilted to favor retention and acquisition equally. In 2023, as subscriber growth across the industry slows, publishers will pay even more attention to retaining that paying audience base. One bright spot? 4 in 5 U.S. consumers still do not pay for a digital subscription, according to research from Toolkits. While growth has slowed, the market is still enormous. Appetite for live events remains a bright spot With the digital advertising industry in the midst of a massive technological reset, its key players have boomeranged back to the basics, especially live events. In 2022, in the face of consistent demand for in-person activations, a wave of publishers announced plans to expand their events portfolio. Semafor Will Generate 30% of Its First-Year Revenue From Events Those with the infrastructure in place to capitalize on the fervor immediately saw the business yield record revenues, while others will find out this year whether their investment will bear fruit. Regardless, said Forbes chief revenue officer Sherry Phillips, events will play an increasingly larger role in the media business in 2023. “This past year, we saw a massive appetite for live, in-person and hybrid events,” Phillips said. “I predict that the trend will continue into 2023, with publishers hosting more events.” First-party data and contextual alignment will attract more budgets As with the flight to events, disruption in the digital advertising ecosystem will push a larger share of ad budget toward first-party-based solutions and contextual advertising. This shift will in no way eclipse the dominance of social platforms, and it will find itself competing against the growth of newer sectors, particularly retail media and streaming television. As the Platforms Stumble, Some Publishers See Increased Ad Spend But for publishers that spent much of the last decade trying to convince marketers of the value of serving known audiences in premium environments, shifts in the privacy landscape have finally made the case more convincingly than they ever could, said Maggie Milnamow, the chief revenue officer for Insider. “Data will continue to be king,” Milnamow said. “Almost all of our clients want to leverage first-party data in their programs, and they are becoming increasingly sophisticated in how they use it.” The cold war between tech and media thaws The past few years have given rise to a frigid dynamic between the tech sector and the media industry, as the relationship between the two has shifted in tone since Silicon Valley went from disrupting the status quo to embodying it. Sniping between the two factions played out on a number of fronts, but no medium fanned the flames more vigorously than Twitter, which rewards hyperbole over nuance and routinely brought the disparate fiefdoms into contact. But as Twitter fades in relevance, its decline could usher in a period of relaxed tensions between the former ideological combatants, said Nicholas Thompson, the chief executive of The Atlantic. "Twitter was the underlying source of so much of the tension between the two, and, no matter what happens with that platform in the next twelve months, reporters will be less dependent on it," Thompson said. "The war between the tech industry and the media industry will soften as Twitter becomes less important to media."

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Retention Wars and Live Event Appetite: Media Executives Share 2023 Forecasts

In the face of uncertainty, marketers gravitate to what they know

Mark Stenberg

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