Insider Intelligence: Elon Musk Shouldn’t Bank on Twitter User Growth

Elon Musk’s $44 billion deal to acquire Twitter is nowhere near finalized, but there are already potential looming issues with some of this plans for the social network that have leaked. User growth is one of the pillars of Musk’s strategy for Twitter, but according to Insider Intelligence, he may not be able to count on that. The research provider’s latest forecast pegged Twitter’s worldwide user growth at essentially flat for 2022 and growing by just over 1% per year through 2026, with monthly active users in the U.S. actually declining over that time period. Insider Intelligence projects 368.06 million MAUs at the end of 2022, up 1.5% from the previous year, noting that the social network experienced MAU growth of 11.2% and 4.3%, respectively, in 2020 and 2021, driven by the pandemic. The company predicted that Twitter will add just 20.78 million MAUs by the end of 2026—trailing platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat and TikTok—with much of that growth coming in Western Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Insider Intelligence sees Twitter with nearly 1 million fewer U.S. MAUs by the end of 2026. Principal analyst Jasmine Enberg said in a statement, “Growing Twitter won’t be an easy task. While we now have a better idea of how Musk intends to increase usage of the platform—subscriptions, payments and a mysterious business X—the goals he has set are lofty and signify a major shift in how Twitter is used.” Insider Intelligence also noted that engagement among adult U.S. Twitter users is stagnant thus far in 2022, at 35 minutes per day, up one minute from 2021, and the research firm expects that number to slip to 34 minutes in 2023 and remain there in 2024. Enberg added, “Charging a subscription to use Twitter may be a tough sell, especially if there continues to be a free version of Twitter available. Musk knows this. While he’s expecting to cut ad revenues to less than one-half of Twitter’s total revenues by 2028, subscriptions will still account for about $2 billion less. Musk’s proposal for a payments business means that he’s also getting serious about commerce, which is still a relatively untapped and potentially large opportunity for Twitter.” Meanwhile, findings by Morning Consult tech reporter Chris Teale indicated that not everyone is enthralled with Musk’s emphasis on free speech on the platform, nor with his involvement with China due to Tesla’s factory in Shanghai. According to Morning Consult, roughly two out of five Twitter users believe the spread of misinformation will worsen if social platforms are taken private, while just one in five believe it will improve. More than one-third of Twitter users believe political debate and hate speech will get worse, while 31% believe the user experience on a social platform would improve if it went from public to private, versus 22% who felt the opposite. Other findings by Morning Consult included: Seven out of 10 Twitter users would continue using a social platform if its owner publicly supported a cause that was close to them, and more than one-half would do so if the owner was a philanthropist.54% of Twitter users would remain on a social platform if its owner was a billionaire, compared with 12% who said they would not.Approximately two out of five Twitter users would not remain on a platform if its owner was known for making rash decisions or came out publicly against a cause close to them.41% would not remain on a platform if its owner had close ties to China, and 52% said the same for Russia.Three out of five Twitter users and overall U.S. adults believe social media companies have the right to ban users if their policies are violated.55% of Twitter users believe platforms are responsible for crafting and implementing policies about how political content is shared, while three out of 10 believe the users themselves are responsible.