Predicting Mobile Market Share in 2015? Probably Impossible IMHO

With all due respect to the, I’m sure, accomplished people at MarketsandMarkets, despite my own poor prognostication skills, I am almost sure that their 2015 predictions are wrong.

Report: Mobile App Market Will Be Worth $25 Billion By 2015 – Apple’s Share: 20% (TechCrunch)

I’m not disputing their projection techniques. I’m disputing the ability of anyone (including me) to accurately project what the incredibly dynamic mobile market will look like in 4 to 5 years. Imagine, for example, someone in 2005 or 2006 projecting what the mobile market would look like in 2010. Would that person (perhaps you) have predicted that Apple’s iPhone and Google Android (neither of which were announced at that point in time) would dominate the mobile market or that RIM’s BlackBerry and Nokia (the giants of the time) would be in a downward path? 4 to 5 years is simply too far in the future to make more than generalized predictions about things like battery life, processor power, or display resolution density.