Poseidon: Box office tide rises, doesn’t lift all boats

As it turns out, we’re not gonna need a bigger boat.

Not that people didn’t see this wave coming, but whenever a $150 movie capsizes this spectacularly, it causes the whole business to reassess its moorings.

While it’s too early to say that there will be no survivors from “Poseidon,” it doesn’t look good. Nowadays, a picture sinks or swims increasingly on its overseas business. For example, “Kingdom of Heaven” and “Troy” were both kind of duds here, and still managed to do swimmingly overseas. At worst, its a $100 million bomb; at best, it loses $50 million.

The real question is, How we doin‘? – as in, Is the business back on track after month in the doldrums? To this end, the LA Times notes,

“This weekend’s estimated $96-million overall tally in the U.S. and Canada would snap a string of 22 straight weekends with more than $100 million in ticket sales as the industry seeks to rebound from its 2005 slump, Nielsen EDI said. If estimates hold up, it also would be the first weekend since mid-March to lag behind the comparable period in 2005.”

That’s good news, but does little for the old adage that “a rising tide lifting all boats.”