Forrester Predicts Android Will Have 10% Smarpthone Market Share in 2010 – Still a Distant 4th Place

Here’s another optimistic Android preduction for 2010 from Forrester Research reported by NetworkWorld…

Forrester: Google Android smartphones to take 10% of market in 2010

Forrester’s reported reasons for this prediction is a bit hazy. They apparently attribute it to “heavy industry support” (metrics, folks?) and “growing embrace” by developers of the Android OS (again, “got metrics?”).

A 10% market share would, I believe still place Android in a distant 4th place behind Nokia (40%), RIM (BlackBerry – 21%), and Apple (18%) in the smartphone world. It would, knock down the fading Windows Mobile platform from its current 4th place position (8.8%). If Android smartphones takes 10% of the market, it means that it would have to triple its marketshare (3.5% of of 3Q 2009).

Android has interesting issues to overcome to convince more people to try it:

– Fragmented platform (too many devices and too many concurrently available OS versions)
– Fragmented platform may discourage some developers from developing for Android
– Lack of enterprise friendly features
— Exchange Server support incomplete (e.g., does not provide full access to GAL)
— Does not provide signatures for anything but Gmail
– Android Market does not provide a good environment to discover apps and excite potential customers
– Lack of first class social network clients for popular services like Twitter and Facebook

Note: Marketshare estimates based on 3Q 2009 Canalys global platform share estimates.