Analyst Projecting Apple Will Sell 2 iPads for Every 3 iPhones in 2Q2010 – Really?

As my buddy and co-blogger Frank notes here once in a while, I am one of those people (perhaps one of just a few people) still enthusiastic and looking forward to buying an Apple iPad (pre-orders start this week Friday). But, even I have to scratch my chin and wonder about predictions like this one reported by Barron’s (an extremely respectable news source):

Apple To Build 5 Million iPads In First Half 2010, Analyst Says

The iPad will become physically available to ordinary people like you (well, at last most of you) and me on April 3. The first half of 2010 ends on June 30. So, if this prediction is true, that means 5 million iPads sold in just shy of a single calendar quarter. And, let’s throw one more wrinkle into this discussion: The iPads available in the first 30 days or so of this 2nd quarter will be the WiFi-only model. The 3G capable model won’t be available until sometime in May.

And, while I believe my “use case” for the iPad is a common one, I don’t claim that I am 100% certain that I am right in believing that millions of people want an instant-on alternative to the netbook and are willing to pay $499 for it.

Here’s another puzzling item in this prediction by FBR Captial analyst Craig Berger. He believes that Apple will sell 7.3 million iPhones in 2Q 2010. This means that he expects that 2 iPads will be purchased for every 3 iPhones purchased. That is difficult to believe for a product that some people fill is a solution in search of a problem (I’m not one of them, but still).