How Buyers and TV Ad Chiefs Want to Change the Upfront

Last week, Adweek asked top TV execs, ad sales chiefs and buyers to look back on 2020 and reflect on the biggest things they’ve learned since the pandemic, as well as how the business has been permanently altered because of Covid-19. And given the enormous changes to the upfront marketplace this year—Covid-19 forced media companies to cancel their in-person events, and most networks shifted to a staggered upfront, with some clients negotiating in the typical broadcast year window and others opting for a calendar year upfront—we also wondered what that might mean for 2021’s negotiations. So we posed the same question to TV ad sales chiefs and buyers alike: How would you like to see the upfront marketplace change in the coming year? Here’s what they told us. Dani Benowitz, U.S. president, Magna: For 2021, I would like to see less reliance on age/sex demos and more reliance on audiences for currency in the upfront marketplace. Additionally, I would like to see more outcome-based guarantees with deals that deliver a pre-determined KPI based on ROI, and I want to see significant strides made in offering our clients more flexibility across the board in the marketplace. Lastly, any future changes to ratings measurement and currencies should require alignment from both markets, buy-side and sell-side, prior to marketplace negotiations. Geoffrey Calabrese, chief investment officer, Omnicom Media Group: The first thing I would like to see the industry do is bring back the true commercial benefit of the upfront within the linear TV space. What we have seen over the past few years is a pervasive over-forecasting of inventory supply by our network partners. This, in turn, has led those buys to less efficient, leaving advertisers with chronic underdelivery and networks accumulating liability at incredible rates. The result is misinformed supply/demand forecasts that lead to longer negotiating timelines and a reduced value proposition of space. The second change needed, is the continued momentum toward higher flexibility and agility to match the needs of our advertisers. We saw great change toward this in our last upfront and it is my belief that our partners recognize this now as “must have” as opposed to a “nice to have”—especially now that the majority of them are mass conglomerates with multi-channel offerings at scale, each with the ability to offer high liquidity and optionality for our clients, as we get deeper in to a digital-native world. Dave Campanelli, co-chief investment officer, Horizon Media: I believe we need to get away from the traditional three weeks of negotiation and a cloud of dust upfront that we’ve been accustomed to. It dramatically favors the sellers by applying artificial pressure and a sense of “missing out.” “Buying ahead of time” versus “the upfront” will still maintain significant benefits, but done in a non-synchronized time frame up to each agency/client and what fits their needs will benefit the process. JP Colaco, head of advertising sales, WarnerMedia: We would like to have an honest dialogue with marketers that is less transactional and more about big ideas. We’ve brought together all of our incredible brands and intellectual properties to develop massive possibilities. We all need to recognize where the end consumer is going and capitalize on opportunities that exist at the intersection of powerful content, progressive technology and brand impact. Time is the new currency with consumers, together we will earn it and spend it. Carrie Drinkwater, executive director of integrated investments, Mediahub: Make sure media companies prepare agencies for the changes they are going to implement. Rita Ferro, president, Disney Advertising Sales: Measurement and currency need to reflect the value and total marketplace opportunity that media companies are bringing to market. Marianne Gambelli, president, advertising sales, Fox Corp.: This is a question that comes up every year and was further accelerated during the early days of the pandemic. The thought process of re-imagining the upfront will continue to be an ongoing conversation due to the evolving and accelerated pace of change that continues to take place within the industry. However, it has been proven that there is value to a futures market, and it will continue in some form. What we did see during this upfront was more personalized discussions between buyers and sellers and that will continue to help shape how planning will evolve moving forward. Rachel Hirschi, svp, digital investments, Lockard & Wechsler Direct: I'm not sure that the upfront market needs to change. Certainly, the pandemic caused a lot of upheaval and uncertainty to the upfront market. But the pandemic, while overwhelming, isn't going to last forever, and there will be a return to normalcy. That said, there are few compelling reasons why a longer-term media options market is valuable. If media awareness is the fuel that drives your business, like P&G and McDonald’s, for example, there's an advantage to locking down GRPs at the most favorable rate possible. The upfront market works well in that example. It also works well for advertisers planning major launches or initiatives during specific time frames. However, given the rate of change in the world today, I'd like to see the media industry move away from a spring upfront. It's a legacy system. A more dynamic marketplace, much like a digital trading desk, would bring significantly more fluidity and transparency to the market. Jason Kanefsky, chief investment officer, Havas Media: The upfront is a tactic to fulfill various marketing strategies and objectives, whether it is done in June or November. But this tactic has significant marketing ramifications and should be determined by the client’s best interests, not the industry’s. Peter Olsen, evp, ad sales, A+E Networks: The most important thing we need to do is embrace a currency that accounts for the total audience. Purchasing behavior is so different than when these legacy demos were created, it is no longer tenable to maintain [adults] 18-49 and 25-54. We have so much insight, so many tools, so many ways to prove effectiveness. But both sides need to evolve. Jo Ann Ross, president and chief advertising revenue officer, domestic advertising sales, ViacomCBS: I hope we gain more predictability and visibility as we continue to see our way through the pandemic and 2021. The upfront was completely upended this year, and the virtues of being adaptive, responsive and a trusted partner—our core value—was never more apparent or critical in successfully setting us apart to meet the demands of the marketplace. Dave Sederbaum, evp of video investment, Amplifi US, Dentsu: The upfront market remains a crucial aspect to many marketers’ business plans. That said, the changes that began to take hold in 2020 will take on a whole new level next year. Advertiser control, flexibility and accountability will be front and center for every conversation we have moving forward. Jon Steinlauf, chief U.S. advertising sales officer, Discovery Inc.: Like the rest of the industry, Discovery’s ’20-’21 upfront negotiations were handled remotely and were delayed, but we still were able to complete almost all of them by late August. This left the agencies with tight timelines for final client approvals, however, almost everyone turned things around quickly and most client schedules launched on time in early Q4. This is a huge accomplishment. For the 2021-22 market, I would like to see the industry build upon the progress we’ve made in connecting our streaming services with our linear channels for pricing, packaging and content. This was a positive step as viewership begins to shift to AVOD, particularly among younger demographics. I believe future upfront negotiations should focus more on building unique reach across our platforms for our clients’ advanced targets, and less on legacy currencies. Finally, and I have been saying this for years, the 18-49 and 25-54 age breaks have run their course, especially on linear. I would also advocate for a continuation of flexibility in deal-terms given the unpredictable times ahead. Matt Sweeney, chief investment officer, GroupM: My expectations are that we will accelerate the migration toward audience-based, holistic video commitments. The media partners that lean into data needed for planning, optimizations and measurement will reap the benefits. Rob Tuck, evp, national sales, The CW: As far as the upfront market is concerned, we were fully prepared for what was to be this past year and truly were unaffected by the entire process. I really don’t feel we missed a beat at all with any of our clients. We were upfront from the start in announcing our 4Q20 schedule plans in late May, so our clients had the time to do their analysis on our schedule as well as plan better for our big launch come January 2021. I think this year, you’ll probably see upfront discussions start a little earlier than they did a year ago, which was still the early stages of the pandemic and everyone was adjusting, but one of our strengths has always been our ability to be nimble and collaborative, so we’ll be ready for anything. Linda Yaccarino, chairman, global advertising and partnerships, NBCUniversal: I think the existence of a market like the upfront is one of the most efficient marketplaces that takes place in any business sector. But this year, we had to pivot and iterate [with] our 30 Rock upfront special. It was a reminder that creativity, not legacy thinking, is what is going to move us forward. The upfront is not about a calendar—the calendar is irrelevant. It's how we collaborate as business partners. Marketers and publishers, we collectively have one thing in common: the consumer. If we can keep our vision on them, the collaboration and innovation is going to be born from that. We'll see really quickly that a calendar is less relevant, but that the trading practices have got to reflect consumer behavior, and they do not reflect that right now.

Outlook

How Buyers and TV Ad Sales Chiefs Would Like the Upfront to Change in 2021

Most agree that the process needs an overhaul—and they have plenty of suggestions

Jason Lynch

Kelsey Sutton

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Jason Lynch

Kelsey Sutton