Here's What Buyers Really Thought About the 2022 Upfront

If you only listened to the major media companies, the 2022 upfront couldn't have gone better. Warner Bros. Discovery, in its first upfront as a merged company, received $6 billion in commitments. And in its biggest upfront ever, NBCUniversal secured $7 billion, while Disney earned $9 billion. But that's not the whole story. "The biggest thing to look out for right now is how much of this money is going to stick," one buyer familiar with talks told Adweek. After Warner Bros. Discovery crossed the upfront finish line in August—the last upfront week presenter to complete negotiations—Adweek spoke with several buyers to get an insider's perspective. The marketers described their key takeaways from the 2022 negotiations, including their thoughts on the CPM (cost per thousand viewers reached) increases, what to expect in the scatter market and whether those record-setting commitments would remain. The Covid-19 pandemic made the last two upfronts virtual affairs, but 2022 saw the first in-person presentations since 2019. And unlike the previous two years, which were early markets that saw some broadcasters demanding CPM increases of more than 20%, 2022 shifted back to the buyers. CPM increases were still meaningful, with many announcing increases in the high single digits to low teens. Still, with economic uncertainty, ongoing supply chain issues and record-high inflation, broadcasters were more interested in locking down commitments than playing hardball. After all, several categories have taken major hits recently, including CPGs, auto and insurance. One buyer noticed $1 billion in bounce as budgets fluctuated wildly—by hundreds of millions in any given week. "I think everyone knew there was uncertainty. … But it made things a lot easier to move along," a media buyer told Adweek. The Warner Bros. Discovery of it all Unfortunately, talks weren't as easy with Warner Bros. Discovery, which held out for CPM increases in the low to mid teens for its Premiere package, a mix of the company’s top-rated programming. Ultimately, the plan may have cost the company hundreds of millions of dollars in commitments as budgets moved elsewhere during what one buyer called the "most frustrating negotiation" they ever had. Mere weeks before its upfront presentation, Warner Bros. Discovery completed its $43 billion merger and had the unenviable task of combining two very different sales teams. It didn't necessarily go well. Speaking at a Credit Suisse conference in June, Warner Bros. Discovery ad sales chief Jon Steinlauf said advertisers "really like what we’re doing" with the Premiere package. However, buyers told Adweek the company "couldn't figure out" what was in the Premiere packages, the Warner Bros. and Discovery teams weren't collaborative with each other, and the company was "out of their minds" with the proposed increases. "Nobody was going to sit there and pay those," a buyer declared. However, some buyers were also sympathetic, saying Steinlauf and his leadership team did a great job under the circumstances, and they ultimately feel secure in their partnership with the company. Upfront Streaming Highlights The shift from linear to streaming was on full display at the 2022 upfront. 40% of Disney's total upfront dollars went to streaming and digital.Peacock doubled its upfront revenue to more than $1 billion.Investment in TelevisaUnivision's ViX more than doubled, with 70% of clients investing in linear also leaning into ViX.AVOD service Tubi received significant commitments in only its second year as part of the greater Fox upfront offering. The shifting narrative Meanwhile, sports was a winner in the upfront, according to several buyers, and DEI efforts were on the minds of many. But the main story was the extreme shift from linear to streaming. Multiple buyers said linear dollars were flat or down, with unexpected softness in cable. Clients were more willing this year to move dollars into digital, including social video such as Snap and TikTok. And with more enticing digital options continuing to arrive, including Disney+'s ad tier and Netflix's future ad-supported option, it appears the shift is here to stay. One buyer called it "a tipping point" as clients looked at all the available opportunities, often without the premium prices of linear in order to incentivize dollars. "Last year, [clients] were dipping their toe a little bit. Now they're like, 'Yeah, we need to spend more here,'" the buyer said on the digital shift. On an earnings call in August, Warner Bros. Discovery CFO Gunnar Wiedenfels said the scatter market had “softer” demand, and several buyers who spoke with Adweek concurred. As one put it, “If the upfront is working, then scatter market should not be.” It may come down to whether clients cutting orders amid economic woes want to reenter scatter later. "I'd be lying if I said that I haven't seen any slippage from hold to order," one buyer said. Another commented on advertisers backing off from commitments: "I don't think they're going to be alone." Of course, the record-setting commitments have flexibility and options built in, a safeguard if the economy turns sour. Regardless, media buyers are on high alert as deals start going to order. "If anything were to change, it would change between now and those next couple of weeks," one buyer said. "We're monitoring that really, really closely."