How Duncan Hines Baked Consumer Data Into 'Keto-Friendly' Cake

Most customers don’t associate Duncan Hines with the strict, low-sugar keto diet—yet. The company, which is best known for its boxed baking mixes, has its consumer insights team working to change that. The Conagra Brands-owned label launched “keto-friendly” microwavable cake mix cups in June 2020 and yellow cake and brownie mixes in March. Keto-friendly frosting hits shelves next year. Each package and cup is prominently labeled “keto-friendly” along with its net carbs, a term that indicates total carbohydrates minus fiber. However, it’s unlikely that strict adherents of the keto diet will rejoice over the Duncan products, as they adhere to a 4:1 ratio of fats to protein and carbs. Nutritionists who studied Duncan’s new line dispute that they conform to that guideline (hence the “friendly” appendage). But to those looking to lower their sugar intake or who are familiar with terms like "keto" and "net carbs," it just might be the permission they need to eat cake. “Duncan Hines is in a challenging spot,” Rachel Cheatham, CEO and founder of nutrition marketing consultancy Foodscape Group, told Adweek. “They sell cake. By definition it’s a sweet treat. I applaud the effort. Having said that, if you look carefully at the product, it goes counter to what a ‘clean label-minded’ consumer would want in keto.” As for net carbs, Cheatham said, the term “is pure marketing.” Ryan Reynolds’ Maximum Effort Made Ads for (and Now Partially Owns) a Booming Keto Cookie Brand Since there is no FDA definition of a keto diet or foods, the "keto-friendly" label is Duncan Hines' way of being "inclusive," according to Kristi Reimers, director of nutrition at Conagra Brands. "It signals that this food may be appropriate for many people seeking a low-carb lifestyle, including those following keto," Reimers said. Modernizing research But those were tools from a different era, when artificial intelligence and social media didn’t exist. The insights department evolved into a data-driven research group that uses artificial intelligence, data science and cultural anthropology to develop products consumers often don’t even realize they want, but can’t resist buying. When Sean Connolly took over as Conagra’s CEO in 2015, he wanted an efficient way to understand consumer behavior, so when new products launch they’re more likely to succeed. The result: Innovation happens at a faster clip, enabling new products to arrive on shelves in months rather than years. “Historically, the company was slow to jump on trends,” Bob Nolan, Conagra’s svp of demand science, told Adweek. “Once we jumped on a trend, it was everywhere, and actually already probably fading. Now it’s about catching the wave on the way up and also getting out when it makes sense.” Enter the 'keto-friendly' cake The keto diet isn’t new. It dates to the 1920s, when doctors realized neurological inflammation was reduced in epilepsy patients after they followed a diet low in carbohydrates, high in fat and protein, and significantly reduced sugar. Another noticeable side effect: rapid weight loss, particularly for overweight patients. In recent years, keto made a comeback as the science of eating advanced and protein- and fat-rich ingredients became more readily available, according to Kantha Shelke, a food scientist and principal at food science and research firm Corvus Blue. When social media influencers touted the diet, it became associated with key words like “inflammation,” “type 2 diabetes,” “neurology,” “cancer,” “euphoria” and “cognitive boost.” Spending on keto products is expected to reach $14.75 billion by 2027, according to an October 2020 report by Grand View Research, a 5% growth rate from 2020 to 2027. At Duncan Hines, the cake mix cups have sold nearly $8 million in the latest 52 weeks; since launching in March, the cake mixes have sold about $2 million. It’s unlikely keto would’ve been mentioned in a focus group asking participants if they want to eat healthier. “They’re always going to answer, 'Yeah, absolutely,’” Nolan said. “They’re going to say what they perceive as the right answers or what they aspire to be, not what they do.” Now Nolan and his team take a holistic approach to find dietary patterns. They buy data from Label Insight, a product data source that uploads ingredients and nutrition labels from thousands of grocery items to a database. It also includes restaurant menus. Data scientists analyze the terabytes of information to understand what ingredients are becoming popular and of those, what items Conagra can likely incorporate into their categories. Next comes the anthropological part. Before Covid-19, about 50 members of the consumer insights team regularly dispersed to restaurants around the country, visiting several per trip. They collected photos, menus and, of course, they ate. The team reported on trends and experiences; those mentioned multiple times were further investigated—especially when their real-world data overlapped with what the data scientists uncovered. That’s how the keto cake began. The team also mines social media and search data to learn what the public's dietary interests are. When “modern health” was searched, the term “keto” appeared in the top five results for five straight years. They started digging into comments on social media and learned one of the biggest challenges for those following a keto diet is food prep, since there aren’t many tasty prepared choices. (This isn’t Conagra’s first foray into keto. In early 2020, it released a keto snack box on Amazon that included nuts and beef jerky.) The team mined Pinterest and learned many people create their own treat recipes. Another query that came up frequently was ingredient swapping, particularly using coconut and almond flour instead of white flour. From there, it was a matter of bringing their findings to the research and development team, and figuring out which ingredients to use. Many iterations were tried before the final products made it to shelves. The finished item includes coconut and almond flours as well as allulose, a low-calorie sugar replacement. Keto vs. keto-friendly As Conagra’s director of consumer insights, it’s Ashley Lind’s job to predict what’s coming down the popular culture pipeline. When llamacorns—yes, a llama/unicorn hybrid—became popular, she was a driving force behind that imaginary hybrid concept’s cake mix. Several years ago, Lind and her team noticed unicorns were bubbling up at music festivals and in makeup design. When Starbucks introduced a unicorn frappuccino, she knew it was time for Conagra to jump on it. They created unicorn-themed puddings for the Snack Pack line. “It was one of the most successful items within that category, and really brought a new excitement to that space,” Lind told Adweek. And that may be exactly what these keto-friendly baked products do for Duncan Hines: Show that the brand is part of the conversation. However, the venture into keto may be a more complicated one. Not only do nutritionists question the brand's adherence to keto fundamentals, Spins, a wellness-focused data company that tracks sales, doesn't include the Duncan Hines "keto-friendly" products in its keto tracker because its nutrition label doesn't fit into the algorithm's metrics for keto. “Mainstream brands getting into keto trends is like an elephant trying to tap dance,” said Shelke, the food scientist. “Keto continues to be a niche market that looks promising for big brands, but they have yet to prove they can tap dance.”