Amazon Will Overtake Walmart as the Biggest US Retailer by 2024, Report Says

Despite its thousands of superstores across the United States, Walmart could soon lose its status as the country's biggest retailer to Amazon's massive online shopping business, a new report projects. The study, published by digital commerce service Edge by Ascential, predicts Amazon will surpass Walmart in its share of the overall U.S. retail market in just two years. The findings come despite a recent slowdown in the pandemic surge in ecommerce growth that led to Amazon's first quarterly loss in seven years earlier this year. Edge by Ascential CEO Deren Baker ascribes the decline to temporary factors like inflation, labor shortages and supply chain issues that won't figure as much in the long-term trajectory of Amazon's business. "Despite these challenges, data from Edge by Ascential shows that ecommerce will continue to be the largest driver of retail growth over the next few years in the U.S. and worldwide," Baker said. "It’s not a huge surprise that by gross merchandise value (GMV) sales, our [data] anticipates Amazon to overtake Walmart as the largest retailer in the U.S. by 2024." How BuzzFeed Found Success in Livestream Shopping The findings are based on data collected and analyzed by the digital commerce service's machine learning-powered forecasting software and other data sources it makes available to its subscribers. The report authors expect Amazon to add $294 billion to its retail sales by 2026, growing its share of the retail market to 14.9% with Walmart at 12.7% and Costco the third largest at 4.4%. Walmart and Costco currently control around 13.2% and 3.8% respectively. Home Depot is also expected to grow its share from 3.7% in 2021 to 3.9% in 2026 to become the country's fourth biggest retailer. One of the primary drivers of Amazon's growth over this period will be third-party sales on its platform, which the report projects to grow from 60% of its overall shopping sales to 67% in five years. "Amazon has always taken advantage of its head start as a digital-first platform and has been a pioneer of almost all the growth levers associated with platform-based retail from ‘subscribe and save’ through Prime membership to the evolving media and marketing services Amazon offers to brands," Baker said. The company predicts online shopping will continue to account for more and more of Americans' consumption with online sales constituting about 30.5% of total retail by 2026, up from 24.6% last year. Online grocery could make up a significant chunk of that growth, increasing from 6.5% of the overall market to 8.8% by 2026.