NFL Data Finds Audiences Where Commercials Can’t

An NFL game will put a brand’s message in front of millions of people on any given Sunday (or Monday, or Thursday). But some of that messaging gets lost when it doesn't speak directly to the fan. That's because pro football’s big crowds hide smaller groups that broad advertising talks over. It's left to social media data to find subsets of the audience who, for example, read true-crime, scale mountains or binge HBO Max’s White Lotus when not watching the game. During football’s first pandemic season in 2020, with games played in empty stadiums, Nielsen noted that 69 of the Top 100 television broadcasts were NFL matchups. The league’s media partners at ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC took in $3.78 billion in ad revenue during the 2020-21 season. That was up a decent, all things considered, 1.3% from $3.73 billion a year earlier, according to data marketing firm, Standard Media Index (SMI). Even with fans returning to the stands, the upcoming NFL slate is expected to bring broadcasters their biggest windfall ever. At the moment, only “a few” ads for NBC’s upcoming Super Bowl 56 are still available. Even with league television ratings down from 2019, the NFL remains advertisers’ safest bet for reaching a large audience. Los Angeles Rams Enlist Fans and Players for Kickoff Film Celebrating Home Opener Pay to play Even with escalating demand, NFL advertising comes at a relative bargain. SMI found that the cost of advertising during an NFL regular-season broadcast has an effective cost per thousand (eCPM) viewers of $75 in 2020. That’s $2 less than the average prime time telecast, and $17 less than what a marketer would pay if they waited to run ads during the playoffs. Rick Bruner, SMI’s head of insights and analytics, noted that even amid Covid-19, the NFL remained reliable. Beyond providing value, the NFL increased the number of ad slots per game just in case the pandemic scrubbed a broadcast. When NBC had to postpone a 2020 Thanksgiving Day game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, for example, it could shift ads to another NFL game instead of moving them to another sport or scripted prime time program. “Live sports are still the strongest hours of television in the ad ecosystem of generating that instantaneous, large-reach opportunity and shared experience,” Bruner said. Yet if you look just beneath the surface, there’s more opportunity to be found. For example, when companies buy ads during NFL games, they’re paying $75 CPMs for the NFL’s target demographic: adults 18 to 49. If a company’s just trying to reach NFL-watching women ages 25-54, however, that ends up costing a $181 CPM. According to marketing firm Helixa, that’s not the only audience NFL advertisers overpay for. Depending on their age, location, or even how they spend their time, smaller groups of fans might be a bigger bargain if advertisers target them through social media. Bruner said that digital media “does not reward reach” with high ad prices at even its largest outlets (Amazon, YouTube, etc.). That creates opportunity for companies whose audiences exist in those niches. Alex Lawson, senior research analyst at Helixa, pointed out that his company’s technology can focus on areas as small as individual cities or towns. It can see what beers and snacks fans like, what cars they’re into and how likely they are to take a hike that fall. More importantly, especially as NFL franchises relocate and the league expands its reach across the globe, it can see what fans follow a team well outside its current market. “If you start ignoring those fans in that area for the new shiny fans, there's always the chance that you're going to push your old fans away,” Lawson said. “Maybe you have more people who like paying attention on your social media [who are] coming in from out of the country to attend the game.” NFL’s Raiders Rebuild Their Fanbase After a Lonely First Year in Vegas Short-yardage gains Using artificial intelligence to comb through Twitter data, Helixa found the social media reach of each NFL team among various categories. Overall, among social media users that engage with the NFL and its teams on social media, the Kansas City Chiefs (8.19% of all fans), Pittsburgh Steelers (7.05%) and Dallas Cowboys (5.17%) cast the widest nets. That all translates to more eyes on social media posts and online ads. However, among fans 18-24, the Chiefs take a bigger cut (9.67%). They’re also trailed by different competitors, with the New England Patriots (6.76%) and Atlanta Falcons (6.5%) being far more popular with this group than any other. While the Chiefs take the top spot among Millenials (8.18% of those 25-40), Gen X (7.91% of ages 41-56) and Baby Boomers (8.46% of those 56-69), they’re among the few common threads. Older generations care more about the Steelers, Gen X and Millennials still follow the Cowboys (and were alive the last time they won a title) and Boomers still long for the Joe Montana-led San Francisco 49ers teams of the ‘80s. There are still certainties in NFL advertising. The Seattle Seahawks dominate NFL social media in the Pacific Northwest (and Alaska and Hawaii) while the Patriots maintain their hold over New England. But if companies ignore the layers of information below that sprawling, regional surface, they might overlook a large, lucrative market. For example,if you’re only looking for Las Vegas Raiders fans in Nevada, you should really look back at their old home(s) in Calif., where the Raiders have more reach than the 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers or the L.A. Rams (who don’t even make the Top 3). “Is it just because it's a traditional Calif. brand? Is it kind of like the Yankees where it's more of a lifestyle than a sports team?” said Laia Pescetto, vp of marketing for Helixa. “Those are the kind of questions that you can answer when you do a little bit more of a deep dive into the people, not just the region or the or the logo.” Amid NFL Coverage and Her Apparel Line, Erin Andrews Is Still Not Busy Enough