Last Hurrah?

The ad industry pulses to the same rhythm as the school year. It starts in September, building to a peak just before Christmas. Then, nothing. Signs of life return in January, and things build again, peaking around Easter. From there it’s a gentle southward slope through the summer, and the cycle starts anew.

Marketers set their budgets by this calendar. One good predictor of year-ahead peppiness is network television’s upfront bazaar. Because it involves the nation’s top advertisers (which sort of commit to certain levels of ad spending for the upcoming year), the primary national medium (which gives concessions to top customers in exchange for “commitments”) and huge amounts of money, it has been a great source of analytic tea leaves, a pretty reliable barometer for how things will develop for all national advertisers across all media.