A couple weeks ago I wrote about Facebook preparing to overtake MySpace domestically. Last week Hitwise published data that suggested that MySpace was more than 3 times the size of Facebook domestically. What?!? Nobody appeared to even question the statistics. Today Royal Pingdom used Google Trends to produce similar results to those produced by Compete which I published a couple weeks ago.
So which is it? Is Facebook being dominated by MySpace who is attracting 3 times the domestic traffic (according to Hitwise) or are they about to surpass MySpace? By using rational logic I’ve deduced that the latter is accurate: Facebook is about to surpass MySpace. The company has attracted the largest number of users in history to an individual social network and it continues an upward trend.
Personally, I have watched my friends which once stayed glued to MySpace make the shift to Facebook over the past few months and my expectation is that this will continue. While MySpace may have a music platform and may be generating 3 times the revenue, Facebook continues to grown and that’s really all that matters for the time being.
The company wants to have the most accurate mapping of the social graph and they won’t stop until they get there. It is becoming a central distribution platform for sharing content among all our contacts. My other guess is that the future of Facebook is much brighter than comScore and Hitwise. Both companies have continuously produced inaccurate data which has in some cases impacted the public markets.
Google for instance took a nose dive after comScore suggested the site’s traffic had slowed which would make it more challenging to meet earnings expectations. The stock eventually rallied after it ended up beating estimates, contrary to comScore’s misleading data. For being such large companies, it’s time that some of these analytics companies start producing accurate data.
Do you think Facebook will surpass MySpace domestically in a short period of time? Who’s data is accurate, Compete.com & Google or Hitwise & comScore?