Has Facebook peaked?
If the results of a new survey are to be believed, then perhaps it has. 52 percent of respondents said that they planned to spend less time on Facebook, and a heady 73 percent said that they believed that another social network will eclipse it.
So, here’s the big question: will it be Twitter?
Let’s put aside for a moment the question of whether Twitter even is a social network and agree that it is – does everybody’s favourite micro-blogging platform have the capacity, resources and legs to surpass Facebook as the numero uno amongst social platforms?
Maybe. But it’s statistically unlikely. Surveys like this should, of course, be taken with a hefty pinch – history has shown us time and time again that what people say they will do and what they actually do are two very different things. And, of course, we’ve heard talk that Facebook has peaked time and time again. But, eventually, everything loses its grip, certainly in the tech and social space, and it’s simply a matter of when, not if, that Facebook will ultimately fall to the number two spot amongst all social networks, before eventually disappearing altogether.
Of course, the problem here is that when doesn’t come with a calendar. While it’s essentially 100 percent certain that Facebook will, one day, cease to rule the roost, it could take years. Or even decades. And the longer it takes, the least likely it is that Twitter – or any other social network, circa 2012 – will secure the lead. It’s far more probable that a new, exciting and (critically) innovative rival will enter the market just as Facebook is slipping and quickly assume the premier spot.
Until then, watch this space.