No Facebook by 2020? That’s how one analyst sees it, comparing the next few years for the social network to the past few years for Yahoo.
In five to eight years, (Facebook is) going to disappear in the way that Yahoo has disappeared. Yahoo is still making money, it’s still profitable, it still has 13,000 employees working for it, but it’s 10 percent of the value that it was at the height of 2000. For all intents and purposes, it’s disappeared.
The world is moving faster, it’s getting more competitive, not less. I think those who are dominant in their prior generation are really going to have a hard time moving into this newer generation. Facebook can buy a bunch of mobile companies, but (it is) still a big, fat website, and that’s different from a mobile app.
When you look over these three generations, no matter how successful you are in one generation, you don’t seem to be able to translate that into success in the second generation, no matter how much money you have in the bank, no matter how many smart PhDs you have working for you.
Look at how Google has struggled moving into social, and I think Facebook is going to have the same kind of challenges moving into mobile.
Readers: Is your outlook for Facebook as dire as Jackson’s, or do you think the social network can turn things around?
Image courtesy of Shutterstock.