NEW YORK While the fall TV season is still a good two months down the road, a New York-based research company already has a bead on which new shows are likely to break out in 2009-10.
After subjecting the fall slate to a comprehensive review, NewMediaMetrics’ predictive analysis suggests that CBS’ NCIS: Los Angeles should scare up big ratings Tuesday nights at 9 p.m., while NBC’s Jay Leno Show could prove to be a powerhouse at 10 p.m., particularly on Tuesday nights.
Also promising are: ABC’s Flash Forward, which leads off the network’s Thursday night lineup; NBC’s Monday 9 p.m. hospital drama, Trauma; Fox’s Family Guy spin-off The Cleveland Show, Sunday at 8:30 p.m.; and the CW’s Vampire Diaries, which will hold down the Thursday 8 p.m. time slot.
Other new series flagged by NewMediaMetrics are ABC’s The Forgotten, the Fox musical comedy Glee and the one-two punch of Cougar Town and Eastwick, which will cap ABC’s Wednesday night lineup beginning this fall.
Including the mid-season replacements V and Happy Town, ABC boasts nine of the top 20 new shows, per NMM’s analysis. This season marks the fifth in which the researcher has predicted the outcome of the fall schedule; last year, NMM’s picks resulted in an 86.4 percent accuracy rate.
NMM’s success rate has been steady since it first began calling the outcome of the fall broadcast season back in 2005. That year, the company correctly predicted that Fox’s Prison Break and CBS’ Criminal Minds would be break-out hits, while giving low marks to the largely forgotten NBC ensemble drama Inconceivable and Fox’s Head Cases, which was yanked after just two episodes.
Of the projected top 20 new shows, six are either spin-offs (such as NCIS: L.A., The Cleveland Show) or revisitations of long-ago properties (V, Melrose Place, Eastwick). Meanwhile, Leno is the fall schedule’s “known unknown.” The host is a familiar property, having helmed The Tonight Show for 17 years, although the new format remains something of an enigma.
In addition to the Tuesday night Leno, NMM believes the variety show will get traction on Thursday nights as well. (Certainly, the Thursday shows will benefit from a wealth of high-profile film talent, as the studios will look to trot out their A-listers on the night before their films open.)
Continue to next page →