Carat: Modest Gains for U.S., Global Ad Biz

Aegis Group's Carat has upgraded its global and U.S. ad-spending forecasts for 2010, and projected modest gains for 2011 as well.

The shop now predicts that global spending will climb nearly 3 percent this year, up from the 1 percent gain it had forecast in October 2009.

Next year, global spending momentum should continue with a 4 percent increase, the first projection Carat has made for 2011.

Commenting on the revisions, Aegis CEO Jerry Buhlmann said, "This early view of future global ad spend shows the potential for modest recovery through this year and into 2011 in what looks like an increasingly benign environment."

Carat now predicts U.S. spending this year will move into positive territory, but just barely, with growth of 0.2 percent. Previously, the agency said U.S. ad dollars would shrink by 2.6 percent. Next year, U.S. spending will climb 1.4 percent, the shop said.

Western Europe is also now predicted to show modest growth this year, with spending up 0.6 percent, vs. the slight decline Carat had previously predicted. Next year, the region should be up just over 2 percent.

China will continue to be the fastest growing market, per the Carat survey, which now predicts 16 percent growth this year (up from an earlier forecast of 9 percent) and close to 17 percent in 2011. The entire Asia-Pacific region is expected to climb roughly 7 percent both this year and next, the shop said.